TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Maksym Tkalich vs Oleksandr Riabuha 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1151210611119––
Oleksandr Riabuha
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
0–7Last 7Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:58 and never touched: 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeMaksym Tkalich to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksym Tkalich above · Oleksandr Riabuha below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 75 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Maksym Tkalich at 57.7%
75 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:5857.7%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 4.2pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Tkalich
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Tkalich 856 vs Riabuha 511
Tkalich
Correct
both rated, 346 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkalich 20% vs Riabuha 0%
Tkalich
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkalich 20% vs Riabuha 0%
Tkalich
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkalich +1 · Riabuha -7
Riabuha
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Tkalich) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Riabuha form (0%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkalich 1.615 / Riabuha 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Tkalich)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13276480
Tkalich1.61
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite51% won 27 of 53
Up 2–0, closes it100% 15 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it70% 19 of 27
Riabuha2.20
0%won 0 of 7 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 7
oldest → newest0%takes the first set · 0 of 7
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkalichRiabuhaBasisWin rate · lifetime104 / 248 vs 0 / 741.9%0%104 / 248 vs 0 / 7Avg sets wonper match1.80.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.522.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TkalichTkalich 1.61/Riabuha 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Tkalich · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Tkalich won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
M. Tkalich10
WOct 11 · 10:05K. Tsoi3.003570M. Tkalich1.361111113LOct 11 · 08:05O. Ponomarenko1.401111113M. Tkalich2.755690LOct 11 · 07:05M. Tkalich2.5011880D. Kunchurov1.501311103LOct 11 · 06:05V. Mykhalchenko1.361111113M. Tkalich3.005650LSep 12 · 11:30S. Kuzko2.5081111113M. Tkalich1.50111891LSep 12 · 10:00M. Tkalich2.108760D. Kunchurov1.671111113LSep 12 · 08:00M. Mykhailenko5.001112117113M. Tkalich1.1491481182LSep 12 · 06:00O. Ponomarenko1.571111113M. Tkalich2.255780LSep 12 · 05:00V. Mykhalchenko1.4011912113M. Tkalich2.758111061WSep 6 · 12:05K. Tsoi3.501110871M. Tkalich1.2861211113
O. Riabuha7
LOct 11 · 10:35O. Riabuha3.409890D. Kunchurov1.301111113LOct 11 · 08:35V. Mykhalchenko1.2811116113O. Riabuha3.50941191LOct 11 · 06:35O. Ponomarenko1.221111113O. Riabuha4.008470LOct 11 · 05:35K. Tsoi1.251112113O. Riabuha3.7591070LOct 4 · 11:05O. Riabuha3.506760O. Ponomarenko1.281111113LOct 4 · 09:34O. Riabuha2.384710K. Tsoi1.531111113LOct 4 · 08:03O. Riabuha1.838880D. Kunchurov1.831111113
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