TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Artem Kasyanov vs Serhii Aristarkhov 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115811118118––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:52 and never touched: 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeArtem Kasyanov to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Artem Kasyanov @ 1.50 · Won
How it is goingArtem Kasyanov above · Serhii Aristarkhov below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 73 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Artem Kasyanov at 63.7%
73 points played in total.
H2H Artem Kasyanov 35–29 Serhii Aristarkhov Serhii Aristarkhov has won 29 of their 64 meetings.
The pick
Sealed 07:52Sent to Pro: Artem Kasyanov @ 1.50 · Won
63.7%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 7.7pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Kasyanov
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
35-29 in 64
Kasyanov
Correct
gap of 6 in 64, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kasyanov 1769 vs Aristarkhov 1685
Kasyanov
Correct
both rated, 84 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kasyanov 80% vs Aristarkhov 60%
Kasyanov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kasyanov 40% vs Aristarkhov 80%
Aristarkhov
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kasyanov +4 · Aristarkhov +2
Kasyanov
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Kasyanov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Aristarkhov form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKasyanov 1.40 / Aristarkhov 2.75
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Kasyanov)-7.7pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13276209
Kasyanov1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite63% won 77 of 123
Up 2–0, closes it94% 46 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it81% 58 of 72
Aristarkhov2.75
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog20% won 11 of 56
Down 0–1, comes back11% 4 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKasyanov7wins
AwayAristarkhov3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKasyanov leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKasyanov100%4 of 4
AwayAristarkhov50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kasyanov4Aristarkhov6n = 10Aristarkhov took 6 of 10
S2Kasyanov5Aristarkhov5n = 10split evenly
S3Kasyanov8Aristarkhov2n = 10Kasyanov took 8 of 10
S4Kasyanov4Aristarkhov3n = 7Kasyanov took 4 of 7
S5Kasyanov3Aristarkhov1n = 4Kasyanov took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKasyanovAristarkhovK − ABasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.936.8+2.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKasyanovAristarkhovBasisWin rate · lifetime374 / 669 vs 303 / 55355.9%54.8%374 / 669 vs 303 / 553Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.636.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KasyanovKasyanov 1.40/Aristarkhov 2.75
Hit
What we said
63.7%
Kasyanov · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Artem Kasyanov @ 1.50 · Won
What happened
3–1
Kasyanov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 11 · 05:30A. Kasyanov51911119113S. Aristarkhov4011561172
WAug 7 · 06:30A. Kasyanov45113812113S. Aristarkhov44611111062
WAug 4 · 16:00A. Kasyanov4071111113S. Aristarkhov33118681
WJul 26 · 05:30A. Kasyanov351311113S. Aristarkhov2111550
WJul 19 · 10:00A. Kasyanov44111111113S. Aristarkhov36913771
LJul 17 · 07:00A. Kasyanov32941361S. Aristarkhov44111111113
LJul 12 · 06:30A. Kasyanov4491111852S. Aristarkhov47118611113
WJun 28 · 11:00A. Kasyanov496101111113S. Aristarkhov4511125892
LMar 15 · 07:30A. Kasyanov156630S. Aristarkhov331111113
WMar 8 · 06:30A. Kasyanov341112113S. Aristarkhov2591060
A. Kasyanov10
LOct 11 · 10:00A. Kasyanov1.33118611102M. Hubenko3.25511118123WOct 11 · 08:00A. Lushchyk2.25971131A. Kasyanov1.5711116113WOct 11 · 07:00A. Kasyanov1.57111011113A. Lushchyk2.25812961WOct 11 · 05:30S. Aristarkhov2.5011561172A. Kasyanov1.50911119113WOct 11 · 05:00M. Hubenko3.0041070A. Kasyanov1.361112113LOct 9 · 17:00S. Chuhai2.1011411113A. Kasyanov1.67911851LOct 9 · 16:30R. Ivanov1.611211113A. Kasyanov2.2010680LOct 9 · 15:00I. Fedoryshyn1.6111911123A. Kasyanov2.207115101LOct 9 · 14:00A. Kasyanov2.2068110I. Fedoryshyn1.611111133LOct 9 · 13:00A. Kasyanov2.209890R. Ivanov1.611111113
S. Aristarkhov10
WOct 11 · 09:30A. Lushchyk1.449740S. Aristarkhov2.631111113WOct 11 · 07:30M. Hubenko2.10711881S. Aristarkhov1.6711311113WOct 11 · 06:30S. Aristarkhov1.831011115113M. Hubenko1.8312781172LOct 11 · 05:30S. Aristarkhov2.5011561172A. Kasyanov1.50911119113LOct 11 · 04:30S. Aristarkhov2.507690A. Lushchyk1.501111113WOct 10 · 17:34S. Aristarkhov1.731111810113A. Vasylets2.0095111292WOct 10 · 16:30A. Vasylets2.2041161162S. Aristarkhov1.61118117113WOct 10 · 15:00S. Aristarkhov1.61111111113O. Syksa2.20137441WOct 10 · 13:30S. Aristarkhov1.141111113O. Lyman5.007270WOct 10 · 12:00S. Aristarkhov1.331111113D. Kuzmenko3.257650
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