TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ruslan Ivanov vs Artem Kasyanov 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210116118––––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:23 and never touched: 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeRuslan Ivanov to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingRuslan Ivanov above · Artem Kasyanov below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 58 set 3, 11-8 · our read held Ruslan Ivanov at 60.5%
58 points played in total.
H2H Ruslan Ivanov 8–7 Artem Kasyanov Artem Kasyanov has won 7 of their 15 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Ivanov beat Kasyanov 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 16:2360.5%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 1.4pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Ivanov
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-7 in 15
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ivanov 1898 vs Kasyanov 1749
Ivanov
Correct
both rated, 149 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ivanov 80% vs Kasyanov 0%
Ivanov
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ivanov 60% vs Kasyanov 20%
Ivanov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ivanov +3 · Kasyanov -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Ivanov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kasyanov form (0%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsIvanov 1.615 / Kasyanov 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 40%
Edge (Ivanov)-1.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13266144
Ivanov1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite71% won 63 of 89
Up 2–0, closes it97% 29 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it88% 44 of 50
Kasyanov2.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog48% won 38 of 80
Down 0–1, comes back26% 11 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeIvanov5wins
AwayKasyanov5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeIvanov60%3 of 5
AwayKasyanov60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ivanov5Kasyanov5n = 10split evenly
S2Ivanov5Kasyanov5n = 10split evenly
S3Ivanov5Kasyanov5n = 10split evenly
S4Ivanov3Kasyanov3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricIvanovKasyanovI − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.235.3−1.1per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricIvanovKasyanovBasisWin rate · lifetime89 / 134 vs 370 / 66566.4%55.6%89 / 134 vs 370 / 665Avg sets wonper match2.42.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
IvanovIvanov 1.61/Kasyanov 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.5%
Ivanov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Ivanov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 9 · 13:00R. Ivanov331111113A. Kasyanov269890
LOct 2 · 12:00R. Ivanov29611661A. Kasyanov3911611113
WSep 11 · 15:00R. Ivanov3621211113A. Kasyanov261110411
WSep 10 · 15:00R. Ivanov43111011113A. Kasyanov26412371
LAug 28 · 16:30R. Ivanov206590A. Kasyanov331111113
LAug 28 · 13:00R. Ivanov31123971A. Kasyanov43101111113
WAug 27 · 12:00R. Ivanov391711113A. Kasyanov2615830
LAug 21 · 14:30R. Ivanov2271050A. Kasyanov341112113
LAug 20 · 12:00R. Ivanov3711211762A. Kasyanov47611811113
WAug 14 · 14:30R. Ivanov526121111123A. Kasyanov531110139102
R. Ivanov10
WOct 9 · 15:30S. Chuhai3.507950R. Ivanov1.281111113WOct 9 · 14:30R. Ivanov1.3641211113S. Chuhai3.001110951WOct 9 · 13:00A. Kasyanov2.209890R. Ivanov1.611111113LOct 9 · 12:30I. Fedoryshyn1.7311411113R. Ivanov2.00611561WOct 8 · 16:58A. Lushchyk3.7512611692R. Ivanov1.251011311113LOct 8 · 16:30M. Baday2.251111113R. Ivanov1.572960LOct 8 · 15:00R. Ivanov2.2010370I. Fedoryshyn1.611211113WOct 8 · 13:30R. Ivanov1.2512115113A. Lushchyk3.751081141WOct 8 · 12:00R. Ivanov1.256111011113S. Chuhai3.7511812982LOct 2 · 17:34R. Ivanov1.738611101M. Baday2.0011119123
A. Kasyanov10
LOct 9 · 17:00S. Chuhai2.1011411113A. Kasyanov1.67911851LOct 9 · 15:00I. Fedoryshyn1.6111911123A. Kasyanov2.207115101LOct 9 · 14:00A. Kasyanov2.2068110I. Fedoryshyn1.611111133LOct 9 · 13:00A. Kasyanov2.209890R. Ivanov1.611111113LOct 9 · 12:00A. Kasyanov1.6171191142S. Chuhai2.20116115113LOct 6 · 16:00A. Lushchyk2.381211113A. Kasyanov1.5310780WOct 6 · 14:30I. Fedoryshyn1.8091111882A. Kasyanov1.91116811113LOct 6 · 13:00M. Baday1.3611211113A. Kasyanov3.00711461LOct 6 · 12:00S. Chuhai2.251311118113A. Kasyanov1.57117131192WOct 2 · 16:00S. Chuhai2.104580A. Kasyanov1.671111113
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