TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Andrii Lushchyk vs Serhii Aristarkhov 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911711411––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:29 and never touched: 64.9% is still 64.9%
Graded at full timeAndrii Lushchyk to win
64.9%
64.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAndrii Lushchyk above · Serhii Aristarkhov below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 53 set 3, 4-11 · our read held Andrii Lushchyk at 64.9%
53 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Lushchyk 60–42 Serhii Aristarkhov Serhii Aristarkhov has won 42 of their 102 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:2964.9%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 4.4pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Lushchyk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
60-42 in 102
Lushchyk
Wrong
gap of 18 in 102, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lushchyk 1731 vs Aristarkhov 1676
Lushchyk
Wrong
both rated, 55 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lushchyk 40% vs Aristarkhov 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lushchyk 30% vs Aristarkhov 70%
Aristarkhov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lushchyk +1 · Aristarkhov -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Lushchyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lushchyk form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLushchyk 1.444 / Aristarkhov 2.625
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Lushchyk)-4.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13276312
Lushchyk1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite67% won 108 of 162
Up 2–0, closes it97% 60 of 62
Up 1–0, closes it83% 80 of 97
Aristarkhov2.63
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog20% won 11 of 56
Down 0–1, comes back11% 4 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLushchyk7wins
AwayAristarkhov3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLushchyk leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLushchyk100%7 of 7
AwayAristarkhov100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lushchyk7Aristarkhov3n = 10Lushchyk took 7 of 10
S2Lushchyk7Aristarkhov3n = 10Lushchyk took 7 of 10
S3Lushchyk7Aristarkhov3n = 10Lushchyk took 7 of 10
S4Lushchyk3Aristarkhov1n = 4Lushchyk took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLushchykAristarkhovL − ABasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match35.830.8+5.0per matchSweeps51+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLushchykAristarkhovBasisWin rate · lifetime376 / 806 vs 303 / 55446.7%54.7%376 / 806 vs 303 / 554Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.636.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LushchykLushchyk 1.44/Aristarkhov 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.9%
Lushchyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Aristarkhov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 11 · 04:30A. Lushchyk331111113S. Aristarkhov227690
LSep 27 · 10:30A. Lushchyk4184111172S. Aristarkhov42111136113
LAug 30 · 14:00A. Lushchyk29101090S. Aristarkhov351212113
WJul 19 · 11:30A. Lushchyk331111113S. Aristarkhov213990
LJul 12 · 11:30A. Lushchyk3611311111S. Aristarkhov4013113133
WJul 5 · 05:30A. Lushchyk4211119113S. Aristarkhov35981171
WJun 28 · 05:30A. Lushchyk391111173S. Aristarkhov3289150
WJun 21 · 10:00A. Lushchyk331111113S. Aristarkhov177550
WJun 14 · 11:30A. Lushchyk3811124113S. Aristarkhov379101171
WJun 7 · 05:30A. Lushchyk341211113S. Aristarkhov2710890
A. Lushchyk10
WOct 11 · 08:30A. Lushchyk1.5311116113M. Hubenko2.38461151LOct 11 · 08:00A. Lushchyk2.25971131A. Kasyanov1.5711116113LOct 11 · 07:00A. Kasyanov1.57111011113A. Lushchyk2.25812961LOct 11 · 06:00M. Hubenko2.25117117113A. Lushchyk1.5791171172WOct 11 · 04:30S. Aristarkhov2.507690A. Lushchyk1.501111113LOct 8 · 16:58A. Lushchyk3.7512611692R. Ivanov1.251011311113LOct 8 · 15:30M. Baday1.22111110113A. Lushchyk4.00381271WOct 8 · 14:30A. Lushchyk1.731111123S. Chuhai2.0056100LOct 8 · 13:30R. Ivanov1.2512115113A. Lushchyk3.751081141LOct 8 · 12:30A. Lushchyk2.6387130I. Fedoryshyn1.441111153
S. Aristarkhov10
LOct 11 · 09:00A. Kasyanov1.4011811113S. Aristarkhov2.75511881WOct 11 · 07:30M. Hubenko2.10711881S. Aristarkhov1.6711311113WOct 11 · 06:30S. Aristarkhov1.831011115113M. Hubenko1.8312781172LOct 11 · 05:30S. Aristarkhov2.5011561172A. Kasyanov1.50911119113LOct 11 · 04:30S. Aristarkhov2.507690A. Lushchyk1.501111113WOct 10 · 17:34S. Aristarkhov1.731111810113A. Vasylets2.0095111292WOct 10 · 16:30A. Vasylets2.2041161162S. Aristarkhov1.61118117113WOct 10 · 15:00S. Aristarkhov1.61111111113O. Syksa2.20137441WOct 10 · 13:30S. Aristarkhov1.141111113O. Lyman5.007270WOct 10 · 12:00S. Aristarkhov1.331111113D. Kuzmenko3.257650
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