TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Andrii Lushchyk vs Maksym Hubenko 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
114116611115––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:28 and never touched: 64.0% is still 64.0%
Graded at full timeAndrii Lushchyk to win
64.0%
64.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Lushchyk above · Maksym Hubenko below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 65 set 4, 11-5 · our read held Andrii Lushchyk at 64.0%
65 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Lushchyk 47–32 Maksym Hubenko Maksym Hubenko has won 32 of their 79 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Hubenko beat Lushchyk 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:2864.0%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 1.2pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Lushchyk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
47-32 in 79
Lushchyk
Correct
gap of 15 in 79, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lushchyk 1723 vs Hubenko 1602
Lushchyk
Correct
both rated, 121 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lushchyk 20% vs Hubenko 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lushchyk 30% vs Hubenko 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lushchyk -3 · Hubenko -2
Lushchyk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Lushchyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hubenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLushchyk 1.533 / Hubenko 2.375
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Lushchyk)-1.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13276196
Lushchyk1.53
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite67% won 108 of 162
Up 2–0, closes it97% 60 of 62
Up 1–0, closes it83% 80 of 97
Hubenko2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog26% won 36 of 137
Down 0–1, comes back17% 14 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLushchyk2wins
AwayHubenko8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHubenko leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLushchykn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayHubenko87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lushchyk2Hubenko8n = 10Hubenko took 8 of 10
S2Lushchyk4Hubenko6n = 10Hubenko took 6 of 10
S3Lushchyk4Hubenko6n = 10Hubenko took 6 of 10
S4Lushchyk3Hubenko3n = 6split evenly
S5Lushchyk1Hubenko3n = 4Hubenko took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricLushchykHubenkoL − HBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match38.040.9−2.9per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLushchykHubenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime375 / 805 vs 583 / 106846.6%54.6%375 / 805 vs 583 / 1068Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.638.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LushchykLushchyk 1.53/Hubenko 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64%
Lushchyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lushchyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 11 · 06:00A. Lushchyk4591171172M. Hubenko47117117113
LSep 27 · 07:30A. Lushchyk34109150M. Hubenko401211173
LSep 22 · 15:00A. Lushchyk228950M. Hubenko331111113
WSep 22 · 14:00A. Lushchyk341211113M. Hubenko2110470
LSep 10 · 17:29A. Lushchyk48111411121M. Hubenko4613163143
LSep 10 · 13:00A. Lushchyk3784111132M. Hubenko50111189113
LAug 30 · 16:00A. Lushchyk551314711102M. Hubenko581512118123
WAug 9 · 09:30A. Lushchyk44711114113M. Hubenko3511231182
LAug 2 · 14:00A. Lushchyk33147481M. Hubenko45121111113
LJul 31 · 08:00A. Lushchyk2810990M. Hubenko341211113
A. Lushchyk10
LOct 11 · 09:30A. Lushchyk1.449740S. Aristarkhov2.631111113LOct 11 · 08:00A. Lushchyk2.25971131A. Kasyanov1.5711116113LOct 11 · 07:00A. Kasyanov1.57111011113A. Lushchyk2.25812961LOct 11 · 06:00M. Hubenko2.25117117113A. Lushchyk1.5791171172WOct 11 · 04:30S. Aristarkhov2.507690A. Lushchyk1.501111113LOct 8 · 16:58A. Lushchyk3.7512611692R. Ivanov1.251011311113LOct 8 · 15:30M. Baday1.22111110113A. Lushchyk4.00381271WOct 8 · 14:30A. Lushchyk1.731111123S. Chuhai2.0056100LOct 8 · 13:30R. Ivanov1.2512115113A. Lushchyk3.751081141LOct 8 · 12:30A. Lushchyk2.6387130I. Fedoryshyn1.441111153
M. Hubenko10
WOct 11 · 10:00A. Kasyanov1.33118611102M. Hubenko3.25511118123LOct 11 · 07:30M. Hubenko2.10711881S. Aristarkhov1.6711311113LOct 11 · 06:30S. Aristarkhov1.831011115113M. Hubenko1.8312781172WOct 11 · 06:00M. Hubenko2.25117117113A. Lushchyk1.5791171172LOct 11 · 05:00M. Hubenko3.0041070A. Kasyanov1.361112113LOct 9 · 11:30S. Miroshnychenko3.75111011123M. Hubenko1.258129101WOct 9 · 10:00M. Hubenko1.33111115113O. Lyman3.25981761WOct 9 · 08:00O. Syksa2.7511691162M. Hubenko1.40411119113LOct 9 · 06:00O. Ziakun3.251211511113M. Hubenko1.3314811872LOct 9 · 05:00O. Kurylenko2.7512811123M. Hubenko1.4010111101
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