TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Ziakun vs Maksym Hubenko 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1214118511118117
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:52 and never touched: 77.2% is still 77.2%
Graded at full timeMaksym Hubenko to win
77.2%
77.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Ziakun above · Maksym Hubenko below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 98 set 5, 11-7 · our read held Maksym Hubenko at 77.2%
98 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Ziakun 15–52 Maksym Hubenko Oleksandr Ziakun has won 15 of their 67 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:5277.2%Our read75.0%to break even at 1.333
clears by 2.2pp75.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.333 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Hubenko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
15-52 in 67
Hubenko
Wrong
gap of 37 in 67, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ziakun 1573 vs Hubenko 1625
Hubenko
Wrong
both rated, 52 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ziakun 80% vs Hubenko 60%
Ziakun
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ziakun 80% vs Hubenko 60%
Ziakun
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ziakun +4 · Hubenko -1
Ziakun
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% · Strong (leans Hubenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hubenko form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZiakun 3.25 / Hubenko 1.333
Signal prob.23% / 77%
Edge (Hubenko)+2.2pp
Setka Cup · #13266117
Ziakun3.25
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 96 of 265
Down 0–1, comes back21% 32 of 153
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 81
Hubenko1.33
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite71% won 262 of 371
Up 2–0, closes it92% 133 of 144
Up 1–0, closes it80% 184 of 229
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZiakun2wins
AwayHubenko8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHubenko leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZiakun33.3%1 of 3
AwayHubenko85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ziakun3Hubenko7n = 10Hubenko took 7 of 10
S2Ziakun3Hubenko7n = 10Hubenko took 7 of 10
S3Ziakun3Hubenko7n = 10Hubenko took 7 of 10
S4Ziakun2Hubenko3n = 5Hubenko took 3 of 5
S5Ziakun1Hubenko2n = 3Hubenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricZiakunHubenkoZ − HBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match31.839.2−7.4per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZiakunHubenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime366 / 769 vs 580 / 106147.6%54.7%366 / 769 vs 580 / 1061Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HubenkoZiakun 3.25/Hubenko 1.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
77.2%
Hubenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Ziakun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 9 · 06:00O. Ziakun501211511113M. Hubenko4814811872
LOct 8 · 06:00O. Ziakun2667130M. Hubenko371111153
LOct 5 · 08:00O. Ziakun324117101M. Hubenko4211811123
LOct 1 · 06:00O. Ziakun236890M. Hubenko331111113
LSep 29 · 07:30O. Ziakun4798111182M. Hubenko46111185113
LSep 27 · 05:30O. Ziakun2275100M. Hubenko341111123
LSep 23 · 09:00O. Ziakun3612711332M. Hubenko471011411113
WSep 20 · 09:30O. Ziakun361114113M. Hubenko2891270
LSep 17 · 06:00O. Ziakun2135130M. Hubenko371111153
LSep 9 · 08:30O. Ziakun25117251M. Hubenko4071111113
O. Ziakun10
WOct 9 · 04:30O. Ziakun1.571171110113O. Lyman2.2541191272WOct 8 · 10:30O. Ziakun1.44811311113S. Miroshnychenko2.6311911962WOct 8 · 09:00O. Ziakun1.57111139113O. Lyman2.25114111152WOct 8 · 07:30O. Ziakun2.101111113D. Kuzmenko1.679980LOct 8 · 06:00O. Ziakun3.4067130M. Hubenko1.301111153LOct 8 · 04:30O. Ziakun2.38101116652O. Syksa1.531261411113WOct 6 · 10:30O. Ziakun1.5311512113O. Lyman2.386111091WOct 6 · 09:00O. Ziakun1.73111199113S. Maliuk2.0089111182WOct 6 · 07:30O. Ziakun1.50158128113S. Miroshnychenko2.501311101182WOct 6 · 06:00O. Ziakun2.25421211113O. Kurylenko1.57111110792
M. Hubenko10
LOct 9 · 05:00O. Kurylenko2.7512811123M. Hubenko1.4010111101WOct 8 · 11:30D. Kuzmenko3.001175101M. Hubenko1.3691111123LOct 8 · 10:00M. Hubenko1.5011118972O. Syksa2.50961111113WOct 8 · 08:00O. Lyman3.4091161172M. Hubenko1.30114119113WOct 8 · 06:00O. Ziakun3.4067130M. Hubenko1.301111153WOct 8 · 05:00S. Miroshnychenko4.50116641M. Hubenko1.1761111113WOct 7 · 10:30D. Kuzmenko3.0089111152M. Hubenko1.36111166113LOct 7 · 09:30M. Hubenko1.36891111162O. Kurylenko3.00111189183LOct 7 · 08:30M. Hubenko2.7511612792S. Chuhai1.409111011113WOct 7 · 07:00M. Hubenko1.5361112113A. Vasylets2.381181081
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