TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Milan Vrabec vs Daniel Cupec 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA12 · Liberec
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
4111210119117––
Daniel Cupec
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:13 and never touched: 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timeDaniel Cupec to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Daniel Cupec @ 1.50 · Lost
How it is goingMilan Vrabec above · Daniel Cupec below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 75 set 4, 11-7 · our read held Daniel Cupec at 62.9%
75 points played in total.
H2H Milan Vrabec 2–3 Daniel Cupec Milan Vrabec has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pick
Sealed 10:13Sent to Pro: Daniel Cupec @ 1.50 · Lost
62.9%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 6.4pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Cupec
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vrabec 1168 vs Cupec 1157
Vrabec
Correct
both rated, 11 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vrabec 40% vs Cupec 80%
Cupec
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vrabec 50% vs Cupec 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vrabec -1 · Cupec +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Cupec) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cupec form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVrabec 2.625 / Cupec 1.444
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Cupec)-6.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13275099
Vrabec2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog27% won 27 of 100
Down 0–1, comes back16% 12 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 52
Cupec1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeVrabec2wins
AwayCupec3wins
2 of 5 to a deciderCupec leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVrabecn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayCupec75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vrabec1Cupec4n = 5Cupec took 4 of 5
S2Vrabec3Cupec2n = 5Vrabec took 3 of 5
S3Vrabec1Cupec4n = 5Cupec took 4 of 5
S4Vrabec2Cupec1n = 3Vrabec took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricVrabecCupecV − CBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match33.037.8−4.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVrabecCupecBasisWin rate · lifetime188 / 367 vs 24 / 5851.2%41.4%188 / 367 vs 24 / 58Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.134.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CupecVrabec 2.63/Cupec 1.44
Miss
What we said
62.9%
Cupec · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Daniel Cupec @ 1.50 · Lost
What happened
3–1
Vrabec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LOct 4 · 09:28M. Vrabec133550D. Cupec331111113
LOct 4 · 06:30M. Vrabec203890D. Cupec331111113
WMar 22 · 14:30M. Vrabec41611211113D. Cupec3911411492
LMar 22 · 13:00M. Vrabec49121212762D. Cupec5614101011113
WMar 1 · 07:30M. Vrabec4211119113D. Cupec28671141
M. Vrabec10
LOct 11 · 10:30V. Stach2.201211113M. Vrabec1.6110680WOct 11 · 09:00M. Vrabec1.80111011113V. Stach1.90912971WOct 11 · 08:30M. Vrabec1.5061111113M. Smesny2.50118341LOct 11 · 07:00M. Vrabec1.571178111V. Stach2.2571111133LOct 11 · 06:00J. Hyrsl1.618111011113M. Vrabec2.2011312852WOct 9 · 08:58M. Vrabec1.4081111113M. Smesny2.75119621WOct 9 · 08:30M. Vrabec1.5011311113M. Smesny2.50411781LOct 9 · 07:00M. Vrabec1.731191191D. Mutl2.0013117113LOct 9 · 06:00J. Grohsgott1.73111199113M. Vrabec2.0086111142WOct 7 · 08:58M. Vrabec1.57711811113J. Potensky2.2511611772
D. Cupec10
WOct 11 · 12:00D. Cupec1.9111511113V. Stach1.80711781WOct 11 · 10:00D. Cupec2.0061111113Z. Kasinski1.73114771WOct 4 · 09:28M. Vrabec1.913550D. Cupec1.801111113LOct 4 · 08:30J. Strnad2.001111113D. Cupec1.735950WOct 4 · 07:30D. Cupec2.00511311113J. Hyrsl1.7311711792WOct 4 · 06:30M. Vrabec1.533890D. Cupec2.381111113LJun 6 · 09:03D. Cupec1.379380L. Novotny2.801111113WJun 6 · 08:00D. Cupec1.73111211113L. Novotny2.001310781LJun 6 · 07:30J. Strnad2.38111110113D. Cupec1.53751231LJun 6 · 06:00D. Cupec1.536350J. Martinek2.381111113
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