TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Filip Mlynarski vs Szymon Sporek 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesHSC · Czestochowa
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
116911117811119
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:18 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeFilip Mlynarski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingFilip Mlynarski above · Szymon Sporek below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 94 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Filip Mlynarski at 54.0%
94 points played in total.
H2H Filip Mlynarski 12–15 Szymon Sporek Filip Mlynarski has won 12 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:1854.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Mlynarski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-15 in 27
Sporek
Wrong
gap of 3 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mlynarski 1660 vs Sporek 1716
Sporek
Wrong
both rated, 56 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mlynarski 20% vs Sporek 40%
Sporek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mlynarski 30% vs Sporek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mlynarski -3 · Sporek -2
Mlynarski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Mlynarski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sporek form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMlynarski 1.80 / Sporek 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Mlynarski)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13275081
Mlynarski1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 157 of 241
Up 2–0, closes it96% 80 of 83
Up 1–0, closes it81% 114 of 141
Sporek1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 52 of 121
Down 0–1, comes back25% 15 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMlynarski4wins
AwaySporek6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSporek leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMlynarski66.7%2 of 3
AwaySporek71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mlynarski3Sporek7n = 10Sporek took 7 of 10
S2Mlynarski4Sporek6n = 10Sporek took 6 of 10
S3Mlynarski6Sporek4n = 10Mlynarski took 6 of 10
S4Mlynarski3Sporek6n = 9Sporek took 6 of 9
S5Mlynarski3Sporek2n = 5Mlynarski took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMlynarskiSporekM − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match41.543.5−2.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMlynarskiSporekBasisWin rate · lifetime193 / 343 vs 386 / 77656.3%49.7%193 / 343 vs 386 / 776Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MlynarskiMlynarski 1.80/Sporek 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Mlynarski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Mlynarski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 10 · 22:55F. Mlynarski2241080S. Sporek341112113
WOct 10 · 17:40F. Mlynarski4011117113S. Sporek29741171
LAug 29 · 22:10F. Mlynarski35781191S. Sporek4111118113
LAug 29 · 17:40F. Mlynarski3986111132S. Sporek49111188113
WJun 29 · 00:45F. Mlynarski531111119113S. Sporek4813961192
WJun 28 · 22:30F. Mlynarski546111610113S. Sporek47113141272
WJun 28 · 20:30F. Mlynarski47117117113S. Sporek4681171192
LJun 27 · 23:15F. Mlynarski35126981S. Sporek43101111113
LJun 27 · 21:00F. Mlynarski531312101172S. Sporek531510125113
LJun 27 · 16:55F. Mlynarski371361171S. Sporek4515118113
F. Mlynarski10
LOct 11 · 21:00K. Staszczyk2.2061111113F. Mlynarski1.61119271LOct 11 · 18:50F. Mlynarski1.917115101J. Chmielowski1.8011811123LOct 11 · 17:40F. Mlynarski1.7361115882D. Jadam2.001191311113LOct 11 · 16:05F. Mlynarski2.756960K. Kolodziej1.401111113WOct 11 · 15:00F. Mlynarski1.53115411113K. Staszczyk2.3841111562LOct 11 · 00:35D. Jadam1.8311126113F. Mlynarski1.839101161LOct 10 · 22:55S. Sporek1.731112113F. Mlynarski2.0041080WOct 10 · 22:10J. Chmielowski2.20511471F. Mlynarski1.6111811113WOct 10 · 21:25M. Kolek2.5010117111F. Mlynarski1.5012311133LOct 10 · 20:05F. Mlynarski2.75811531K. Kolodziej1.4011811113
S. Sporek10
WOct 11 · 21:25S. Sporek1.57101111113D. Jadam2.25126781LOct 11 · 19:15S. Sporek1.44412891K. Staszczyk2.63111011113LOct 11 · 18:05J. Chmielowski2.00111199113S. Sporek1.7354111182WOct 11 · 16:55D. Jadam2.38791151S. Sporek1.5311115113LOct 11 · 15:25K. Kolodziej1.531111113S. Sporek2.388530WOct 11 · 00:10M. Kolek2.607121171S. Sporek1.4111148113LOct 10 · 23:45S. Sporek1.531061171D. Jadam2.3812116113WOct 10 · 22:55S. Sporek1.731112113F. Mlynarski2.0041080WOct 10 · 21:00S. Sporek1.83411811113J. Chmielowski1.8311511772LOct 10 · 20:30S. Sporek1.6171191172D. Jadam2.20118119113
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