TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Konrad Staszczyk vs Filip Mlynarski 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesHSC · Czestochowa
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
611119112117––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:57 and never touched: 55.9% is still 55.9%
Graded at full timeFilip Mlynarski to win
55.9%
55.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKonrad Staszczyk above · Filip Mlynarski below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-2
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 68 set 4, 11-7 · our read held Filip Mlynarski at 55.9%
68 points played in total.
H2H Konrad Staszczyk 5–7 Filip Mlynarski Konrad Staszczyk has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Mlynarski beat Staszczyk 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:5755.9%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 6.0pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Mlynarski
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-7 in 12
Mlynarski
Wrong
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Staszczyk 1798 vs Mlynarski 1672
Staszczyk
Correct
both rated, 126 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Staszczyk 40% vs Mlynarski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Staszczyk 70% vs Mlynarski 40%
Staszczyk
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Staszczyk +2 · Mlynarski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Mlynarski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mlynarski form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStaszczyk 2.20 / Mlynarski 1.615
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Mlynarski)-6.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13275260
Staszczyk2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 31 of 88
Down 0–1, comes back14% 8 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 38
Mlynarski1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 157 of 241
Up 2–0, closes it96% 80 of 83
Up 1–0, closes it81% 114 of 141
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStaszczyk4wins
AwayMlynarski6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMlynarski leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStaszczyk66.7%4 of 6
AwayMlynarski100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Staszczyk6Mlynarski4n = 10Staszczyk took 6 of 10
S2Staszczyk5Mlynarski5n = 10split evenly
S3Staszczyk7Mlynarski3n = 10Staszczyk took 7 of 10
S4Staszczyk1Mlynarski6n = 7Mlynarski took 6 of 7
S5Staszczyk1Mlynarski3n = 4Mlynarski took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStaszczykMlynarskiS − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.137.3+0.8per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaszczykMlynarskiBasisWin rate · lifetime281 / 463 vs 194 / 34460.7%56.4%281 / 463 vs 194 / 344Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MlynarskiStaszczyk 2.20/Mlynarski 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.9%
Mlynarski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Staszczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 13 · 18:50K. Staszczyk341112113F. Mlynarski2691070
WAug 9 · 21:00K. Staszczyk351113113F. Mlynarski2461170
WAug 9 · 16:05K. Staszczyk51111199113F. Mlynarski4789111182
LAug 9 · 00:35K. Staszczyk381171191F. Mlynarski4313118113
LAug 8 · 18:30K. Staszczyk2879120F. Mlynarski361111143
LJul 12 · 23:55K. Staszczyk351171071F. Mlynarski4061112113
LJul 12 · 21:45K. Staszczyk4031111692F. Mlynarski47118611113
LJul 11 · 18:30K. Staszczyk42111011372F. Mlynarski51912811113
WJun 28 · 23:55K. Staszczyk4011711113F. Mlynarski22311261
K. Staszczyk10
WOct 11 · 20:05D. Jadam1.73811841K. Staszczyk2.0011811113WOct 11 · 19:15S. Sporek1.44412891K. Staszczyk2.63111011113LOct 11 · 17:20K. Kolodziej1.2811911113K. Staszczyk3.50411951LOct 11 · 16:30J. Chmielowski2.0011911113K. Staszczyk1.73711581LOct 11 · 15:00F. Mlynarski1.53115411113K. Staszczyk2.3841111562WOct 10 · 00:20K. Rudomina2.75711671K. Staszczyk1.4011711113WOct 9 · 23:35J. Wozniak3.50691141K. Staszczyk1.2811119113WOct 9 · 23:15K. Staszczyk1.7371111113M. Marchlewski2.00117531WOct 9 · 22:05M. Kolek2.00119791K. Staszczyk1.7391111113WOct 9 · 21:45K. Staszczyk1.4011116113K. Rudomina2.75651181
F. Mlynarski10
WOct 11 · 20:30F. Mlynarski1.80119118113S. Sporek1.9161171192LOct 11 · 18:50F. Mlynarski1.917115101J. Chmielowski1.8011811123LOct 11 · 17:40F. Mlynarski1.7361115882D. Jadam2.001191311113LOct 11 · 16:05F. Mlynarski2.756960K. Kolodziej1.401111113WOct 11 · 15:00F. Mlynarski1.53115411113K. Staszczyk2.3841111562LOct 11 · 00:35D. Jadam1.8311126113F. Mlynarski1.839101161LOct 10 · 22:55S. Sporek1.731112113F. Mlynarski2.0041080WOct 10 · 22:10J. Chmielowski2.20511471F. Mlynarski1.6111811113WOct 10 · 21:25M. Kolek2.5010117111F. Mlynarski1.5012311133LOct 10 · 20:05F. Mlynarski2.75811531K. Kolodziej1.4011811113
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