TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Filip Mlynarski vs Konrad Staszczyk 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesHSC · Czestochowa
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
114511411115116
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:50 and never touched: 57.2% is still 57.2%
Graded at full timeFilip Mlynarski to win
57.2%
57.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Konrad Staszczyk @ 2.25 · Won
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
How it is goingFilip Mlynarski above · Konrad Staszczyk below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 7-6
Point 75 set 5, 7-6 · our read held Filip Mlynarski at 57.2%
75 points drawn · the score is 4 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Filip Mlynarski 6–5 Konrad Staszczyk Konrad Staszczyk has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pick
Sealed 11:50Sent to Pro: Konrad Staszczyk @ 2.25 · Won
57.2%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 8.0pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Mlynarski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-5 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mlynarski 1695 vs Staszczyk 1796
Staszczyk
Wrong
both rated, 101 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mlynarski 40% vs Staszczyk 100%
Staszczyk
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mlynarski 40% vs Staszczyk 80%
Staszczyk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mlynarski -2 · Staszczyk +8
Staszczyk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Mlynarski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Staszczyk form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMlynarski 1.533 / Staszczyk 2.375
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Mlynarski)-8.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13274287
Mlynarski1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 157 of 241
Up 2–0, closes it96% 80 of 83
Up 1–0, closes it81% 114 of 141
Staszczyk2.38
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 10)
Won last 8
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 31 of 88
Down 0–1, comes back14% 8 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMlynarski5wins
AwayStaszczyk5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMlynarski100%3 of 3
AwayStaszczyk71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mlynarski3Staszczyk7n = 10Staszczyk took 7 of 10
S2Mlynarski6Staszczyk4n = 10Mlynarski took 6 of 10
S3Mlynarski3Staszczyk7n = 10Staszczyk took 7 of 10
S4Mlynarski5Staszczyk2n = 7Mlynarski took 5 of 7
S5Mlynarski2Staszczyk1n = 3Mlynarski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMlynarskiStaszczykM − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.038.6−1.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMlynarskiStaszczykBasisWin rate · lifetime192 / 339 vs 279 / 45856.6%60.9%192 / 339 vs 279 / 458Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StaszczykMlynarski 1.53/Staszczyk 2.38
Hit
What we said
57.2%
Mlynarski · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Konrad Staszczyk @ 2.25 · Won
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
What happened
3–2
Mlynarski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 13 · 18:50F. Mlynarski2691070K. Staszczyk341112113
LAug 9 · 21:00F. Mlynarski2461170K. Staszczyk351113113
LAug 9 · 16:05F. Mlynarski4789111182K. Staszczyk51111199113
WAug 9 · 00:35F. Mlynarski4313118113K. Staszczyk381171191
WAug 8 · 18:30F. Mlynarski361111143K. Staszczyk2879120
WJul 12 · 23:55F. Mlynarski4061112113K. Staszczyk351171071
WJul 12 · 21:45F. Mlynarski47118611113K. Staszczyk4031111692
WJul 11 · 18:30F. Mlynarski51912811113K. Staszczyk42111011372
LJun 28 · 23:55F. Mlynarski22311261K. Staszczyk4011711113
LJun 28 · 21:45F. Mlynarski34712871K. Staszczyk43111011113
F. Mlynarski10
LOct 11 · 00:35D. Jadam1.8311126113F. Mlynarski1.839101161LOct 10 · 22:55S. Sporek1.731112113F. Mlynarski2.0041080WOct 10 · 22:10J. Chmielowski2.20511471F. Mlynarski1.6111811113WOct 10 · 21:25M. Kolek2.5010117111F. Mlynarski1.5012311133LOct 10 · 20:05F. Mlynarski2.75811531K. Kolodziej1.4011811113LOct 10 · 18:30J. Chmielowski2.001111119113F. Mlynarski1.7313791152WOct 10 · 17:40S. Sporek2.00741171F. Mlynarski1.7311117113WOct 10 · 16:55F. Mlynarski1.8015116113D. Jadam1.911361171LOct 10 · 15:45F. Mlynarski1.53111211982M. Kolek2.38914511113LSep 27 · 23:20J. Kuzmicz1.571111113F. Mlynarski2.258780
K. Staszczyk10
WOct 10 · 00:20K. Rudomina2.75711671K. Staszczyk1.4011711113WOct 9 · 23:35J. Wozniak3.50691141K. Staszczyk1.2811119113WOct 9 · 23:15K. Staszczyk1.7371111113M. Marchlewski2.00117531WOct 9 · 22:05M. Kolek2.00119791K. Staszczyk1.7391111113WOct 9 · 21:45K. Staszczyk1.4011116113K. Rudomina2.75651181WOct 9 · 20:05K. Staszczyk1.73116113113T. Filbrandt2.0061131182WOct 9 · 18:50K. Staszczyk1.731111113M. Marchlewski2.006840WOct 9 · 17:20K. Staszczyk1.3371111113J. Wozniak3.25114941LOct 9 · 16:05K. Staszczyk1.801081281M. Kolek1.91121110113LOct 9 · 00:35K. Staszczyk1.307990R. Stapor3.401111113
Upcoming Matches
F. Mlynarski
Oct 11 · 16:05F. Mlynarski2.75K. Kolodziej1.40—Oct 11 · 17:40F. Mlynarski1.73D. Jadam2.00—Oct 11 · 18:50F. Mlynarski1.91J. Chmielowski1.80—Oct 11 · 20:30F. Mlynarski1.80S. Sporek1.91—Oct 11 · 21:00F. Mlynarski1.53K. Staszczyk2.38—Oct 11 · 22:10F. Mlynarski1.73D. Jadam2.00—Oct 11 · 22:35F. Mlynarski1.91J. Chmielowski1.80—Oct 11 · 23:20F. Mlynarski1.80S. Sporek1.91—
K. Staszczyk
Oct 11 · 16:30K. Staszczyk1.73J. Chmielowski2.00—Oct 11 · 17:20K. Staszczyk3.50K. Kolodziej1.28—Oct 11 · 19:15K. Staszczyk—S. Sporek——Oct 11 · 20:05K. Staszczyk2.00D. Jadam1.73—Oct 11 · 21:00K. Staszczyk2.38F. Mlynarski1.53—Oct 11 · 22:55K. Staszczyk—D. Jadam——Oct 11 · 23:45K. Staszczyk1.73J. Chmielowski2.00—Oct 12 · 00:10K. Staszczyk2.63S. Sporek1.44—Oct 12 · 21:00K. Staszczyk—S. Brud——Oct 12 · 22:55K. Staszczyk—K. Rudomina——
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