TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Andrzej Szurgot vs Andriej Fomin 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesOSP 1 · Czestochowa
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1311115911911117
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:28 and never touched: 79.4% is still 79.4%
Graded at full timeAndriej Fomin to win
79.4%
79.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAndrzej Szurgot above · Andriej Fomin below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 98 set 5, 11-7 · our read held Andriej Fomin at 79.4%
98 points played in total.
H2H Andrzej Szurgot 1–1 Andriej Fomin Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:2879.4%Our read81.8%to break even at 1.222
short by 2.4pp81.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.222 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Fomin
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Szurgot 1203 vs Fomin 1497
Fomin
Wrong
both rated, 294 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szurgot 40% vs Fomin 60%
Fomin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szurgot 40% vs Fomin 70%
Fomin
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Szurgot -2 · Fomin +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% · Strong (leans Fomin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fomin form (60%) is below what odds imply (82%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzurgot 4.00 / Fomin 1.222
Signal prob.21% / 79%
Edge (Fomin)-2.4pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13275025
Szurgot4.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog20% won 28 of 137
Down 0–1, comes back12% 12 of 100
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 72
Fomin1.22
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite73% won 314 of 431
Up 2–0, closes it98% 176 of 180
Up 1–0, closes it91% 241 of 264
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeSzurgot1wins
AwayFomin1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricSzurgotFominS − FBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match31.028.0+3.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzurgotFominBasisWin rate · lifetime38 / 165 vs 601 / 101323%59.3%38 / 165 vs 601 / 1013Avg sets wonper match1.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match31.738.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FominSzurgot 4.00/Fomin 1.22
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
79.4%
Fomin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Szurgot won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LOct 10 · 21:00A. Szurgot2310850A. Fomin341211113
WOct 10 · 16:35A. Szurgot3911611113A. Fomin22311531
A. Szurgot10
LOct 11 · 18:55A. Szurgot3.251061181A. Kubiak1.3312119113LOct 11 · 17:20A. Szurgot4.00135551G. Mucha1.22111111113WOct 11 · 16:55A. Szurgot2.4591111113K. Kwiatkowski1.47117761WOct 11 · 16:15A. Szurgot2.5091111103K. Kwiatkowski1.50117751LOct 11 · 15:00A. Szurgot2.0014101171M. Kumor1.7316125113LOct 11 · 02:35A. Szurgot1.83711561D. Pyrek1.8311711113LOct 11 · 01:00A. Szurgot2.75118951P. Gesiarz1.4081111113WOct 10 · 23:45A. Szurgot4.00571112113M. Lewczuk1.22111181032WOct 10 · 22:10A. Szurgot1.501111113D. Maszczynski2.355570LOct 10 · 21:00A. Szurgot3.5010850A. Fomin1.261211113
A. Fomin10
LOct 11 · 21:20K. Kwiatkowski2.25111156123A. Fomin1.57791111102WOct 11 · 19:20A. Fomin1.3611911113M. Kumor3.00711571LOct 11 · 18:10A. Kubiak2.6311211113A. Fomin1.44611571WOct 11 · 15:50G. Mucha1.5712690A. Fomin2.201411113WOct 11 · 15:25K. Kwiatkowski2.109136131A. Fomin1.67111111153LOct 11 · 02:10M. Lewczuk2.75111112123A. Fomin1.403814101LOct 11 · 01:25D. Pyrek3.2511116113A. Fomin1.33961181WOct 10 · 23:20D. Maszczynski5.007101261A. Fomin1.14111210113WOct 10 · 22:35P. Gesiarz2.63111111492A. Fomin1.44871311113WOct 10 · 21:00A. Szurgot3.5010850A. Fomin1.261211113
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