TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Dariusz Maszczynski vs Andriej Fomin 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesOSP 1 · Czestochowa
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
0–10Last 10Lost last 12
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
71110121210611––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:14 and never touched: 86.8% is still 86.8%
Graded at full timeAndriej Fomin to win
86.8%
86.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDariusz Maszczynski above · Andriej Fomin below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 79 set 4, 6-11 · our read held Andriej Fomin at 86.8%
79 points played in total.
H2H Dariusz Maszczynski 0–20 Andriej Fomin Dariusz Maszczynski has won 0 of their 20 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Fomin beat Maszczynski 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:1486.8%Our read87.6%to break even at 1.142
short by 0.8pp87.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.142 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.14 (81%)
Fomin
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-20 in 20
Fomin
Correct
gap of 20 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maszczynski 1119 vs Fomin 1527
Fomin
Correct
both rated, 408 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maszczynski 0% vs Fomin 100%
Fomin
Correct
100pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maszczynski 0% vs Fomin 80%
Fomin
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Maszczynski -12 · Fomin +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 87% · Strong (leans Fomin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fomin form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (88%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaszczynski 5.00 / Fomin 1.142
Signal prob.13% / 87%
Edge (Fomin)-0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13275030
Maszczynski5.00
0%won 0 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 12
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog23% won 71 of 308
Down 0–1, comes back12% 25 of 212
Down 0–2, comes back1% 2 of 144
Fomin1.14
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite73% won 309 of 423
Up 2–0, closes it98% 172 of 176
Up 1–0, closes it91% 237 of 261
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaszczynski0wins
AwayFomin10wins
2 of 10 to a deciderFomin leads 10–0, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaszczynskin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayFomin100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maszczynski2Fomin8n = 10Fomin took 8 of 10
S2Maszczynski1Fomin9n = 10Fomin took 9 of 10
S3Maszczynski4Fomin6n = 10Fomin took 6 of 10
S4Maszczynski2Fomin5n = 7Fomin took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaszczynskiFominM − FBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match32.441.4−9.0per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaszczynskiFominBasisWin rate · lifetime110 / 493 vs 599 / 101022.3%59.3%110 / 493 vs 599 / 1010Avg sets wonper match1.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match33.538.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FominMaszczynski 5.00/Fomin 1.14
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
86.8%
Fomin · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Fomin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 10 · 17:20D. Maszczynski27291151A. Fomin4111118113
LOct 3 · 22:55D. Maszczynski186660A. Fomin331111113
LOct 3 · 16:55D. Maszczynski43111141162A. Fomin53139119113
LAug 31 · 03:30D. Maszczynski388911101A. Fomin4211118123
LAug 17 · 07:10D. Maszczynski3911551172A. Fomin48811117113
LAug 3 · 03:35D. Maszczynski4011811101A. Fomin4481113123
LAug 2 · 02:10D. Maszczynski2111460A. Fomin351311113
LAug 1 · 20:05D. Maszczynski388111181A. Fomin4411139113
LJul 25 · 23:20D. Maszczynski2681080A. Fomin341112113
LJul 25 · 17:20D. Maszczynski34861191A. Fomin4011117113
D. Maszczynski10
LOct 11 · 00:35D. Maszczynski4.002490M. Lewczuk1.221111113LOct 10 · 22:10A. Szurgot1.501111113D. Maszczynski2.355570LOct 10 · 21:20D. Maszczynski2.636390D. Pyrek1.441111113LOct 10 · 19:40D. Maszczynski1.916360A. Szurgot1.801111113LOct 10 · 18:30D. Maszczynski3.757690M. Lewczuk1.251111113LOct 10 · 17:20D. Maszczynski5.00291151A. Fomin1.1411118113LOct 10 · 16:15P. Gesiarz1.3311117113D. Maszczynski3.25831161LOct 10 · 15:25D. Maszczynski3.00111151162D. Pyrek1.36831113113LOct 5 · 20:00J. Cyndera1.1211114143D. Maszczynski5.753911121LOct 5 · 19:10A. Zmijewski1.161111113D. Maszczynski4.809360
A. Fomin10
WOct 10 · 22:35P. Gesiarz2.63111111492A. Fomin1.44871311113WOct 10 · 21:00A. Szurgot3.5010850A. Fomin1.261211113WOct 10 · 20:05M. Lewczuk2.639940A. Fomin1.441111113WOct 10 · 19:20D. Pyrek2.75510110A. Fomin1.401112133WOct 10 · 17:20D. Maszczynski5.00291151A. Fomin1.1411118113LOct 10 · 16:35A. Szurgot4.3311611113A. Fomin1.20311531LOct 10 · 15:00P. Gesiarz2.751111113A. Fomin1.408580WOct 8 · 04:40D. Bartosik—511111092A. Fomin—119612113WOct 8 · 03:55A. Staniczek3.95910111132A. Fomin1.20111279113WOct 8 · 01:55W. Stechly6.87991131A. Fomin1.0711119113
Upcoming Matches
D. Maszczynski
A. Fomin
Oct 11 · 01:25A. Fomin1.33D. Pyrek3.25—Oct 11 · 02:10A. Fomin1.40M. Lewczuk2.75—Oct 11 · 15:25A. Fomin—K. Kwiatkowski——Oct 11 · 16:55A. Fomin—G. Mucha——Oct 11 · 18:10A. Fomin—A. Kubiak——Oct 11 · 19:20A. Fomin—M. Kumor——Oct 11 · 20:30A. Fomin—A. Szurgot——Oct 11 · 21:20A. Fomin—K. Kwiatkowski——Oct 11 · 22:55A. Fomin—G. Mucha——Oct 12 · 00:10A. Fomin—A. Szurgot——
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