Grzegorz Mucha vs Andriej Fomin 3-2

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite SeriesOSP 1 · Czestochowa

Played Oct 11Finished

Grzegorz Mucha

Home

2.50

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 1

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

10128111181171210

Andriej Fomin

Away

1.50

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:52 and never touched: 63.7% is still 63.7%

Graded at full time

Andriej Fomin to win

63.7%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is going

Point-by-point unavailable

BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.

100 points played in total.

Set by set

10128111181171210

H2H Grzegorz Mucha 6–9 Andriej Fomin Grzegorz Mucha has won 6 of their 15 meetings.

Last 10 · 5–5Head to head

Deep Dive by Market

One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Fomin

Mucha 2.50/Fomin 1.50

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

63.7%

Fomin · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Mucha won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 22:52

63.7%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50

short by 3.0pp

66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)

What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.50 (63%)

Fomin

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

6-9 in 15

Fomin

Wrong

gap of 3 in 15, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Mucha 1400 vs Fomin 1457

Fomin

Wrong

both rated, 57 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Mucha 60% vs Fomin 40%

Mucha

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Mucha 50% vs Fomin 50%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Mucha -1 · Fomin -2

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Fomin) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Fomin: form 40%, the price implies 67%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsMucha 2.50 / Fomin 1.50

Signal prob.36% / 64%

Edge (Fomin)-3.0pp (anti-value)

Same-day rematch · 7h before this match

Fomin beat Mucha 3-0.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeMucha5wins

AwayFomin5wins

3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeMucha60%3 of 5

AwayFomin60%3 of 5

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Mucha5Fomin5n = 10split evenly

S2Mucha6Fomin4n = 10Mucha took 6 of 10

S3Mucha5Fomin5n = 10split evenly

S4Mucha4Fomin4n = 8split evenly

S5Mucha1Fomin2n = 3Fomin took 2 of 3

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home110%

3–1Four sets, home330%

3–2Decider, home110%

2–3Decider, away220%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricMuchaFominM − FBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.940.90.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricMuchaFominBasisWin rate · lifetime199 / 396 vs 600 / 101450.3%59.2%199 / 396 vs 600 / 1014Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.1per match

TT Elite Series · #13275023

Mucha2.50

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As underdog36% won 64 of 177

Down 0–1, comes back19% 19 of 98

Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 62

Fomin1.50

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As favourite73% won 314 of 431

Up 2–0, closes it98% 176 of 180

Up 1–0, closes it91% 241 of 264

Grzegorz Mucha vs Andriej Fomin 3-2 · TT Elite Series

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Grzegorz Mucha vs Andriej Fomin 3-2 · TT Elite Series

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.