TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Tomas Regner vs Ladislav Havel 1956 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA14 · Liberec
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1161210411811114
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:54 and never touched: 67.6% is still 67.6%
Graded at full timeTomas Regner to win
67.6%
67.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Regner above · Ladislav Havel 1956 below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 88 set 5, 11-4 · our read held Tomas Regner at 67.6%
88 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Regner 34–10 Ladislav Havel 1956 Ladislav Havel 1956 has won 10 of their 44 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:5467.6%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 3.8pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Regner
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
34-10 in 44
Regner
Correct
gap of 24 in 44, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Regner 1290 vs Havel 1346
Havel
Wrong
both rated, 55 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Regner 20% vs Havel 40%
Havel
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Regner 20% vs Havel 50%
Havel
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Regner -2 · Havel +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% · Clear lean (leans Regner) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Regner form (20%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRegner 1.40 / Havel 2.75
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Regner)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13273636
Regner1.40
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 89 of 159
Up 2–0, closes it86% 38 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it66% 61 of 93
Havel2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 09)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 46 of 120
Down 0–1, comes back17% 12 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRegner8wins
AwayHavel2wins
1 of 10 to a deciderRegner leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRegner87.5%7 of 8
AwayHaveln = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Regner8Havel2n = 10Regner took 8 of 10
S2Regner6Havel4n = 10Regner took 6 of 10
S3Regner8Havel2n = 10Regner took 8 of 10
S4Regner2Havel1n = 3Regner took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home660%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRegnerHavelR − HBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match35.425.8+9.6per matchSweeps61+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRegnerHavelBasisWin rate · lifetime475 / 971 vs 264 / 56148.9%47.1%475 / 971 vs 264 / 561Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.535.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RegnerRegner 1.40/Havel 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.6%
Regner · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Regner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LFeb 9 · 04:02T. Regner34119771L. Havel4181111113
LFeb 9 · 03:30T. Regner2679100L. Havel341111123
WJan 25 · 08:30T. Regner547101211143L. Havel541112109122
WDec 12 · 10:30T. Regner331111113L. Havel163760
WDec 12 · 07:00T. Regner4211911113L. Havel23211191
WDec 1 · 11:30T. Regner331111113L. Havel151770
WNov 9 · 12:00T. Regner331111113L. Havel197930
WOct 28 · 02:00T. Regner331111113L. Havel136250
WOct 23 · 10:00T. Regner331111113L. Havel219930
WOct 22 · 07:00T. Regner331111113L. Havel226790
T. Regner10
LOct 10 · 21:09F. Briza1.5511127133T. Regner2.3021011111LOct 10 · 20:00T. Regner1.80125461V. Kosar1.91101111113WOct 10 · 19:30F. Briza1.5711135582T. Regner2.252111111113LOct 10 · 18:00T. Regner1.61116111282M. Kolar2.20711714113LOct 6 · 21:30M. Stefek1.651111113T. Regner2.108880LOct 6 · 20:30T. Regner2.1096111172J. Framberk1.67111149113LOct 6 · 19:00T. Regner1.8311811522M. Stefek1.83511911113WOct 6 · 18:00J. Moravek2.38415101162T. Regner1.531113126113LOct 6 · 02:58M. Necas1.6761111113T. Regner2.10119451LOct 6 · 02:30T. Regner2.3887111172R. Bartunek1.53111169113
L. Havel10
WOct 9 · 08:58J. Pleskot1.738890L. Havel2.001111113LOct 9 · 08:30L. Havel1.6751111782V. Hruska Sr2.10115411113LOct 9 · 07:00L. Havel1.8314730J. Pleskot1.831611113LOct 9 · 06:00M. Chalupnicek2.25911611113L. Havel1.5711211972WOct 8 · 09:29L. Havel1.83111184113V. Pecka1.8399111192WOct 8 · 08:30L. Havel1.671111113V. Hruska Sr2.107460LOct 8 · 07:00L. Havel1.7311912852V. Dolezal2.006111011113WOct 8 · 06:00V. Pecka1.508670L. Havel2.501111113LOct 5 · 09:30A. Svoboda1.281111113L. Havel3.503550WOct 5 · 08:30L. Havel1.6731111113V. Dolezal2.10119771
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