TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Milan Chalupnicek vs Ladislav Havel 1956 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911112611119117
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:56 and never touched: 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeLadislav Havel 1956 to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMilan Chalupnicek above · Ladislav Havel 1956 below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 88 set 5, 11-7 · our read held Ladislav Havel 1956 at 59.3%
88 points played in total.
H2H Milan Chalupnicek 19–28 Ladislav Havel 1956 Milan Chalupnicek has won 19 of their 47 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:5659.3%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.4pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Havel
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
19-28 in 47
Havel
Wrong
gap of 9 in 47, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chalupnicek 1363 vs Havel 1363
Chalupnicek
Correct
both rated, 0 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chalupnicek 40% vs Havel 60%
Havel
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chalupnicek 50% vs Havel 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chalupnicek +1 · Havel +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Havel) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChalupnicek 2.25 / Havel 1.571
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Havel)-4.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13263644
Chalupnicek2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Oct 05)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 42 of 104
Down 0–1, comes back27% 15 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back15% 5 of 34
Havel1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 66 of 105
Up 2–0, closes it91% 42 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it81% 51 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChalupnicek5wins
AwayHavel5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChalupnicek25%1 of 4
AwayHavel33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chalupnicek4Havel6n = 10Havel took 6 of 10
S2Chalupnicek3Havel7n = 10Havel took 7 of 10
S3Chalupnicek6Havel4n = 10Chalupnicek took 6 of 10
S4Chalupnicek4Havel5n = 9Havel took 5 of 9
S5Chalupnicek4Havel2n = 6Chalupnicek took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricChalupnicekHavelC − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.543.0−1.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChalupnicekHavelBasisWin rate · lifetime322 / 630 vs 263 / 55851.1%47.1%322 / 630 vs 263 / 558Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.335.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HavelChalupnicek 2.25/Havel 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.3%
Havel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Chalupnicek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 9 · 06:00M. Chalupnicek48911611113L. Havel4011211972
WAug 19 · 06:00M. Chalupnicek50891111113L. Havel3911115842
LJul 27 · 09:28M. Chalupnicek5413519892L. Havel6111111711113
LJul 27 · 08:00M. Chalupnicek163670L. Havel331111113
LJul 6 · 09:00M. Chalupnicek4011101181L. Havel4313127113
LJul 6 · 07:00M. Chalupnicek22112361L. Havel4071111113
WJun 25 · 06:00M. Chalupnicek4411912123L. Havel3761110101
WApr 24 · 11:30M. Chalupnicek549111111123L. Havel47111367102
WMar 26 · 08:30M. Chalupnicek48911116113L. Havel4011461182
LMar 19 · 09:30M. Chalupnicek39111112412L. Havel50681411113
M. Chalupnicek10
WOct 5 · 13:00R. Hasmanda1.4411331192M. Chalupnicek2.63911113113LOct 5 · 12:00M. Chalupnicek2.5055141182M. Stefek1.501111125113LOct 5 · 11:30V. Hruska Sr2.00118133113M. Chalupnicek1.73811111162LOct 5 · 10:00M. Chalupnicek2.6311114792R. Hasmanda1.44791111113WOct 2 · 09:06M. Chalupnicek2.25111191113M. Stefek1.5717111192WOct 2 · 08:30M. Chalupnicek1.83111110113V. Hruska Sr1.83791251LOct 2 · 07:00M. Chalupnicek2.756117111M. Stefek1.4011411133LOct 2 · 06:00V. Pecka1.36131110133M. Chalupnicek3.0011512111WSep 26 · 17:30V. Hruska Sr1.70101171292M. Chalupnicek2.021291110113WSep 26 · 16:00M. Chalupnicek1.44311126113M. Barta2.63119101152
L. Havel10
WOct 8 · 09:29L. Havel1.83111184113V. Pecka1.8399111192WOct 8 · 08:30L. Havel1.671111113V. Hruska Sr2.107460LOct 8 · 07:00L. Havel1.7311912852V. Dolezal2.006111011113WOct 8 · 06:00V. Pecka1.508670L. Havel2.501111113LOct 5 · 09:30A. Svoboda1.281111113L. Havel3.503550WOct 5 · 08:30L. Havel1.6731111113V. Dolezal2.10119771LOct 5 · 07:00L. Havel2.507980A. Svoboda1.501111113WOct 5 · 06:00T. Nohejl1.44117621L. Havel2.6391111113WOct 4 · 12:58L. Havel1.441111113L. Havrda2.636350LOct 4 · 12:30L. Havel1.739970V. Hruska Sr2.001111113
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