TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Milan Chalupnicek vs Martin Stefek 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
5115111412115811
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:51 and never touched: 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeMartin Stefek to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Chalupnicek above · Martin Stefek below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 93 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Martin Stefek at 64.1%
93 points played in total.
H2H Milan Chalupnicek 4–13 Martin Stefek Milan Chalupnicek has won 4 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:5164.1%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 2.6pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Stefek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-13 in 17
Stefek
Correct
gap of 9 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chalupnicek 1341 vs Stefek 1375
Stefek
Correct
both rated, 35 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chalupnicek 40% vs Stefek 60%
Stefek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chalupnicek 50% vs Stefek 70%
Stefek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chalupnicek -2 · Stefek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Stefek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChalupnicek 2.50 / Stefek 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Stefek)-2.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13243892
Chalupnicek2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 41 of 102
Down 0–1, comes back26% 14 of 55
Down 0–2, comes back15% 5 of 34
Stefek1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 126 of 212
Up 2–0, closes it94% 73 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it76% 93 of 122
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChalupnicek1wins
AwayStefek9wins
5 of 10 to a deciderStefek leads 9–1, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChalupnicek33.3%1 of 3
AwayStefek100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chalupnicek3Stefek7n = 10Stefek took 7 of 10
S2Chalupnicek5Stefek5n = 10split evenly
S3Chalupnicek3Stefek7n = 10Stefek took 7 of 10
S4Chalupnicek2Stefek6n = 8Stefek took 6 of 8
S5Chalupnicek1Stefek4n = 5Stefek took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricChalupnicekStefekC − SBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.041.7−5.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChalupnicekStefekBasisWin rate · lifetime322 / 632 vs 622 / 128951%48.3%322 / 632 vs 622 / 1289Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StefekChalupnicek 2.50/Stefek 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.1%
Stefek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Stefek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 5 · 12:00M. Chalupnicek4355141182M. Stefek501111125113
WOct 2 · 09:06M. Chalupnicek43111191113M. Stefek3917111192
LOct 2 · 07:00M. Chalupnicek356117111M. Stefek3911411133
LJun 26 · 12:00M. Chalupnicek3911511572M. Stefek45311911113
LMay 22 · 07:30M. Chalupnicek248790M. Stefek331111113
LMar 4 · 14:00M. Chalupnicek4085111242M. Stefek481111510113
LMar 4 · 11:00M. Chalupnicek331011931M. Stefek4012611113
LMar 2 · 08:30M. Chalupnicek2612770M. Stefek361411113
LJan 23 · 10:30M. Chalupnicek32811851M. Stefek3911611113
LJan 23 · 09:00M. Chalupnicek4511117972M. Stefek48871111113
M. Chalupnicek10
LOct 5 · 11:30V. Hruska Sr2.00118133113M. Chalupnicek1.73811111162LOct 5 · 10:00M. Chalupnicek2.6311114792R. Hasmanda1.44791111113WOct 2 · 09:06M. Chalupnicek2.25111191113M. Stefek1.5717111192WOct 2 · 08:30M. Chalupnicek1.83111110113V. Hruska Sr1.83791251LOct 2 · 07:00M. Chalupnicek2.756117111M. Stefek1.4011411133LOct 2 · 06:00V. Pecka1.36131110133M. Chalupnicek3.0011512111WSep 26 · 17:30V. Hruska Sr1.70101171292M. Chalupnicek2.021291110113WSep 26 · 16:00M. Chalupnicek1.44311126113M. Barta2.63119101152LSep 26 · 15:30V. Hruska Sr1.831111113M. Chalupnicek1.838880WSep 26 · 14:00M. Chalupnicek1.8311411113A. Schneeberger1.83511961
M. Stefek10
WOct 5 · 11:00R. Hasmanda2.00137111172M. Stefek1.731111136113WOct 5 · 10:30M. Stefek1.4081211113V. Hruska Sr2.751110481LOct 4 · 03:30M. Stefek2.45411911R. Bartunek1.5011911113LOct 4 · 02:30M. Smrcek1.501112119113M. Stefek2.5091411162WOct 4 · 01:00V. Dolezal1.5759111192M. Stefek2.25111182113WOct 3 · 23:30M. Stefek2.7511117113R. Bartunek1.40961171WOct 3 · 22:00M. Stefek1.8011118123L. Sulava1.912911101LOct 3 · 09:30M. Syroha2.25411119113M. Stefek1.5711851152LOct 2 · 09:06M. Chalupnicek2.25111191113M. Stefek1.5717111192WOct 2 · 07:00M. Chalupnicek2.756117111M. Stefek1.4011411133
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