TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Rotislav Hasmanda vs Martin Stefek 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
13117111113116711
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:56 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeMartin Stefek to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingRotislav Hasmanda above · Martin Stefek below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 101 set 5, 7-11 · our read held Martin Stefek at 54.1%
101 points played in total.
H2H Rotislav Hasmanda 24–30 Martin Stefek Rotislav Hasmanda has won 24 of their 54 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:5654.1%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.8pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Stefek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
24-30 in 54
Stefek
Correct
gap of 6 in 54, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hasmanda 1397 vs Stefek 1353
Hasmanda
Wrong
both rated, 44 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hasmanda 80% vs Stefek 60%
Hasmanda
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hasmanda 60% vs Stefek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hasmanda +2 · Stefek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Stefek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hasmanda form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHasmanda 2.00 / Stefek 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Stefek)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13243758
Hasmanda2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog34% won 54 of 157
Down 0–1, comes back19% 17 of 90
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 57
Stefek1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 126 of 212
Up 2–0, closes it94% 73 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it76% 93 of 122
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHasmanda3wins
AwayStefek7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderStefek leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHasmanda60%3 of 5
AwayStefek100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hasmanda5Stefek5n = 10split evenly
S2Hasmanda5Stefek5n = 10split evenly
S3Hasmanda2Stefek8n = 10Stefek took 8 of 10
S4Hasmanda2Stefek6n = 8Stefek took 6 of 8
S5Hasmanda2Stefek1n = 3Hasmanda took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHasmandaStefekH − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.340.9−1.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHasmandaStefekBasisWin rate · lifetime373 / 757 vs 620 / 128949.3%48.1%373 / 757 vs 620 / 1289Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StefekHasmanda 2.00/Stefek 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Stefek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Stefek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 22 · 10:00R. Hasmanda3911711101M. Stefek4481113123
WSep 21 · 00:00R. Hasmanda551212811123M. Stefek501014115102
WSep 17 · 20:30R. Hasmanda341211113M. Stefek1910450
LSep 16 · 22:00R. Hasmanda2394100M. Stefek341111123
LSep 10 · 11:00R. Hasmanda371081181M. Stefek4012116113
LAug 30 · 23:00R. Hasmanda381011891M. Stefek4012611113
LAug 27 · 23:00R. Hasmanda4411981152M. Stefek50811119113
LAug 26 · 00:30R. Hasmanda36811981M. Stefek4211911113
WAug 24 · 13:28R. Hasmanda45111166113M. Stefek4278111152
LAug 24 · 10:00R. Hasmanda4210151071M. Stefek48121312113
R. Hasmanda10
LOct 5 · 12:30R. Hasmanda1.57711481V. Hruska Sr2.2511411113WOct 5 · 10:00M. Chalupnicek2.6311114792R. Hasmanda1.44791111113WSep 24 · 13:29R. Hasmanda1.731113113V. Hruska Sr2.0061160LSep 24 · 12:30R. Hasmanda1.5761111792V. Hruska Sr2.25117711113WSep 24 · 11:00R. Hasmanda1.731111113J. Strnad2.003660WSep 24 · 10:00V. Pecka1.6111591162R. Hasmanda2.20611117113WSep 22 · 13:00R. Hasmanda1.501111123Z. Drabek2.5025100LSep 22 · 12:30R. Hasmanda1.4451360V. Hruska Sr2.631115113WSep 22 · 11:00R. Hasmanda1.571111123Z. Drabek2.2537100LSep 22 · 10:00M. Stefek1.7381113123R. Hasmanda2.0011711101
M. Stefek10
WOct 5 · 12:00M. Chalupnicek2.5055141182M. Stefek1.501111125113WOct 5 · 10:30M. Stefek1.4081211113V. Hruska Sr2.751110481LOct 4 · 03:30M. Stefek2.45411911R. Bartunek1.5011911113LOct 4 · 02:30M. Smrcek1.501112119113M. Stefek2.5091411162WOct 4 · 01:00V. Dolezal1.5759111192M. Stefek2.25111182113WOct 3 · 23:30M. Stefek2.7511117113R. Bartunek1.40961171WOct 3 · 22:00M. Stefek1.8011118123L. Sulava1.912911101LOct 3 · 09:30M. Syroha2.25411119113M. Stefek1.5711851152WOct 3 · 08:00M. Stefek1.67111110113M. Vilhan2.10781241WSep 22 · 10:00M. Stefek1.7381113123R. Hasmanda2.0011711101
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