TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Piotr Odelski vs Adam Duch 2-3 · TT Cup
TT CupPoland 2 · Kielce
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
101211410121210311
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:34 and never touched: 59.2% is still 59.2%
Graded at full timeAdam Duch to win
59.2%
59.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
95 points played in total.
Set by set
101211410121210311
H2H Piotr Odelski 3–2 Adam Duch Adam Duch has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:3459.2%Our read62.5%to break even at 1.60
short by 3.3pp62.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.60 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (57%)
Duch
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Odelski 1594 vs Duch 1691
Duch
Correct
both rated, 97 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Odelski 40% vs Duch 60%
Duch
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Odelski 40% vs Duch 70%
Duch
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Odelski -1 · Duch -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Duch) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOdelski 2.10 / Duch 1.60
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Duch)-3.3pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13273530
Odelski2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 08)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog49% won 24 of 49
Down 0–1, comes back32% 10 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back19% 3 of 16
Duch1.60
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite62% won 114 of 183
Up 2–0, closes it95% 72 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it76% 84 of 110
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeOdelski3wins
AwayDuch2wins
2 of 5 to a deciderOdelski leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOdelski66.7%2 of 3
AwayDuchn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Odelski3Duch2n = 5Odelski took 3 of 5
S2Odelski4Duch1n = 5Odelski took 4 of 5
S3Odelski0Duch5n = 5Duch took 5 of 5
S4Odelski2Duch3n = 5Duch took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricOdelskiDuchO − DBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match40.042.0−2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOdelskiDuchBasisWin rate · lifetime66 / 113 vs 443 / 74058.4%59.9%66 / 113 vs 443 / 740Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DuchOdelski 2.10/Duch 1.60
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.2%
Duch · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Duch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WOct 8 · 18:30P. Odelski4111118113A. Duch33681181
WOct 1 · 15:30P. Odelski46511811113A. Duch4311811582
LSep 11 · 14:30P. Odelski36119881A. Duch4291111113
WSep 10 · 22:10P. Odelski51111167163A. Duch50681111142
LSep 10 · 19:00P. Odelski26311661A. Duch4211911113
P. Odelski10
LOct 8 · 21:40A. Veliiev—1113113P. Odelski—71180WOct 8 · 20:00P. Odelski2.00981212113D. Bucko1.711111101062WOct 8 · 18:30P. Odelski1.9111118113A. Duch1.80681181LOct 8 · 17:00P. Odelski1.861181171L. Buklat1.8361113113LOct 8 · 15:00P. Odelski1.547690B. Gola2.251111113LOct 8 · 14:00P. Odelski2.051181191A. Veliiev1.7013113113WOct 3 · 22:35K. Guzy—5560P. Odelski—1111113LOct 3 · 21:35P. Odelski1.498590P. Kos2.451111113WOct 3 · 19:35D. Bucko2.009111161P. Odelski1.7211138113LOct 3 · 18:35P. Odelski2.059111011102K. Guzy1.66116129123
A. Duch10
LOct 10 · 16:05K. Guzy2.0512815113A. Duch1.7010111391LOct 9 · 22:40A. Duch1.411119612132K. Zapala2.756171114153WOct 9 · 20:00A. Duch1.661111123K. Guzy2.1045100WOct 9 · 18:30A. Duch1.42111110123K. Zapala2.656912101LOct 9 · 17:00A. Duch1.601378101L. Buklat2.20111111123WOct 9 · 15:00A. Duch1.3611116113B. Gola2.80391191WOct 9 · 14:00A. Duch1.669101111113A. Veliiev2.1011124672WOct 8 · 22:40D. Bucko2.2551090A. Duch1.571112113WOct 8 · 20:30A. Duch1.8511119113A. Veliiev1.85681151LOct 8 · 18:30P. Odelski1.9111118113A. Duch1.80681181
Upcoming Matches
P. Odelski
A. Duch
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