TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Adam Duch vs Anton Veliiev 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116118911115––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:20 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAdam Duch to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
72 points played in total.
Set by set
116118911115––
H2H Adam Duch 11–6 Anton Veliiev Anton Veliiev has won 6 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:2054.0%Our read54.1%to break even at 1.85
short by 0.1pp54.1% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.85 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.85 (50%)
Veliiev
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-6 in 17
Duch
Correct
gap of 5 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Duch 1664 vs Veliiev 1601
Duch
Correct
both rated, 62 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Duch 40% vs Veliiev 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Duch 50% vs Veliiev 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Duch -1 · Veliiev -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Duch) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Veliiev form (40%) is below what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDuch 1.85 / Veliiev 1.85
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Duch)-0.1pp
TT Cup · #13265959
Duch1.85
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Veliiev1.85
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDuch9wins
AwayVeliiev1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderDuch leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDuch100%7 of 7
AwayVeliiev33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Duch7Veliiev3n = 10Duch took 7 of 10
S2Duch8Veliiev2n = 10Duch took 8 of 10
S3Duch6Veliiev4n = 10Duch took 6 of 10
S4Duch3Veliiev2n = 5Duch took 3 of 5
S5Duch3Veliiev0n = 3Duch took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDuchVeliievD − VBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.132.1+7.0per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDuchVeliievBasisWin rate · lifetime437 / 732 vs 153 / 26759.7%57.3%437 / 732 vs 153 / 267Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DuchDuch 1.85/Veliiev 1.85
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Duch · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Duch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 1 · 17:00A. Duch45111184113A. Veliiev4789111182
WApr 11 · 19:05A. Duch474111011113A. Veliiev4711712982
WApr 10 · 22:30A. Duch331111113A. Veliiev134540
WApr 10 · 18:00A. Duch331111113A. Veliiev196580
WApr 9 · 18:30A. Duch46911114113A. Veliiev3711441172
WMar 21 · 13:35A. Duch4211116143A. Veliiev368511121
WMar 20 · 19:30A. Duch331111113A. Veliiev238690
LMar 19 · 18:30A. Duch351113110A. Veliiev411315133
WFeb 19 · 23:10A. Duch3912511113A. Veliiev341011581
WFeb 19 · 18:30A. Duch381111163A. Veliiev2482140
A. Duch10
LOct 8 · 18:30P. Odelski1.9111118113A. Duch1.80681181WOct 8 · 17:30A. Duch1.2911119113B. Gola3.28751191LOct 8 · 16:30D. Bucko2.15111111113A. Duch1.63981391WOct 8 · 16:00A. Duch1.58111312133L. Buklat2.2571510111LOct 1 · 22:10A. Duch1.27911129102K. Zapala3.501171011123WOct 1 · 21:00A. Duch1.2513117123B. Gola3.7011511101LOct 1 · 19:00K. Guzy2.15111112113A. Duch1.634131091WOct 1 · 17:00A. Veliiev1.9389111182A. Duch1.78111184113WOct 1 · 16:00K. Zapala3.354830A. Duch1.281111113LOct 1 · 15:30A. Duch1.5811811582P. Odelski2.25511811113
A. Veliiev10
LOct 8 · 19:30B. Gola3.4011611113A. Veliiev1.28911851LOct 8 · 18:00D. Bucko1.8111411113A. Veliiev1.90711861WOct 8 · 15:30L. Buklat2.25115101172A. Veliiev1.57811128113WOct 8 · 14:00P. Odelski2.051181191A. Veliiev1.7013113113LOct 4 · 14:15D. Bucko2.05961216113A. Veliiev1.681111101482LOct 4 · 12:05A. Veliiev2.52121114782K. Zapala1.471081611113WOct 4 · 10:35A. Veliiev1.5031111123K. Guzy2.351199101LOct 4 · 09:05A. Veliiev1.6361114392D. Bucko2.161171211113LOct 4 · 07:05A. Veliiev1.36118761P. Kos2.9041111113LOct 1 · 17:00A. Veliiev1.9389111182A. Duch1.78111184113
Upcoming Matches
A. Duch
Nothing scheduled
A. Veliiev
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