TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Patrik Hanel vs Ivo Taichman 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA18 · Ostrava
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116117117––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:11 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIvo Taichman to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Patrik Hanel @ 2.00 · Won
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
How it is goingPatrik Hanel above · Ivo Taichman below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 10-7
Point 52 set 3, 10-7 · our read held Ivo Taichman at 54.0%
52 points drawn · the score is 1 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Patrik Hanel 8–18 Ivo Taichman Patrik Hanel has won 8 of their 26 meetings.
The pick
Sealed 11:11Sent to Pro: Patrik Hanel @ 2.00 · Won
54.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Taichman
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-18 in 26
Taichman
Wrong
gap of 10 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hanel 1531 vs Taichman 1396
Hanel
Correct
both rated, 136 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hanel 80% vs Taichman 40%
Hanel
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hanel 80% vs Taichman 30%
Hanel
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hanel +3 · Taichman -2
Hanel
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Taichman) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Taichman form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHanel 2.00 / Taichman 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Hanel)-4.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13269630
Hanel2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog41% won 27 of 66
Down 0–1, comes back11% 4 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 25
Taichman1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite56% won 97 of 174
Up 2–0, closes it94% 46 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it78% 72 of 92
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHanel4wins
AwayTaichman6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderTaichman leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHanel100%3 of 3
AwayTaichman85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hanel3Taichman7n = 10Taichman took 7 of 10
S2Hanel3Taichman7n = 10Taichman took 7 of 10
S3Hanel6Taichman4n = 10Hanel took 6 of 10
S4Hanel4Taichman5n = 9Taichman took 5 of 9
S5Hanel2Taichman1n = 3Hanel took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHanelTaichmanH − TBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.438.7−2.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHanelTaichmanBasisWin rate · lifetime71 / 138 vs 292 / 57251.5%51.1%71 / 138 vs 292 / 572Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HanelHanel 2.00/Taichman 1.73
Hit
What we said
54%
Taichman · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Patrik Hanel @ 2.00 · Won
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
What happened
3–0
Hanel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 5 · 20:30P. Hanel32671181I. Taichman4111118113
LSep 29 · 21:00P. Hanel4366111192I. Taichman41111162113
LSep 29 · 18:00P. Hanel32961161I. Taichman3811115113
WSep 8 · 15:30P. Hanel44561111113I. Taichman4211116592
LAug 29 · 18:00P. Hanel27511831I. Taichman3611311113
WAug 28 · 20:58P. Hanel43111110113I. Taichman36991261
WAug 28 · 20:30P. Hanel4211911113I. Taichman34811871
WAug 6 · 16:30P. Hanel54121199133I. Taichman471041111112
LJul 17 · 15:30P. Hanel175930I. Taichman331111113
LJul 9 · 21:30P. Hanel30471181I. Taichman3911116113
P. Hanel10
WOct 10 · 11:30F. Zurek2.63121246102P. Hanel1.4410101111123WOct 10 · 10:00P. Hanel1.4471111113V. Bosak2.63119761WOct 8 · 21:28P. Hanel1.25711117113A. Schneeberger3.7511961192LOct 8 · 20:30M. Jasek2.10116119113P. Hanel1.6731191142WOct 8 · 19:30P. Hanel1.331111113R. Guliak3.259560WOct 8 · 18:29A. Schneeberger3.75117981P. Hanel1.2571111113WOct 5 · 21:30P. Hanel1.3651111113R. Guliak3.00119921LOct 5 · 20:30I. Taichman1.7811118113P. Hanel1.92671181WOct 5 · 19:30P. Hanel1.5091111113R. Guliak2.50116941WOct 5 · 18:30F. Zurek2.2574100P. Hanel1.571111123
I. Taichman10
LOct 10 · 11:00V. Bosak1.67113911113I. Taichman2.1061111582LOct 10 · 10:30I. Taichman2.106880F. Zurek1.671111113WOct 10 · 09:30F. Zurek1.5211133962I. Taichman2.355111111113WOct 10 · 08:00I. Taichman2.5011118113F. Zurek1.50861191LOct 10 · 07:30R. Guliak1.611111123I. Taichman2.2077100WOct 10 · 06:00I. Taichman1.73691211113R. Kvasnicka2.00111110752LOct 9 · 08:58P. Varecha1.611111113I. Taichman2.208850LOct 9 · 08:30I. Taichman1.535880P. Varecha2.381111113LOct 9 · 07:00I. Taichman2.38631951F. Zurek1.53111117113WOct 5 · 20:30I. Taichman1.7811118113P. Hanel1.92671181
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