TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jiri Louda vs Tomas Franek 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA14 · Liberec
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911117811911––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:26 and never touched: 66.5% is still 66.5%
Graded at full timeTomas Franek to win
66.5%
66.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Louda above · Tomas Franek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 77 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Tomas Franek at 66.5%
77 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Louda 2–6 Tomas Franek Jiri Louda has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:2666.5%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 2.8pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Franek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-6 in 8
Franek
Correct
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Louda 1638 vs Franek 1709
Franek
Correct
both rated, 71 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Louda 60% vs Franek 80%
Franek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Louda 40% vs Franek 70%
Franek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Louda +2 · Franek +3
Franek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% · Clear lean (leans Franek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Franek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLouda 2.625 / Franek 1.444
Signal prob.34% / 67%
Edge (Franek)-2.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13269270
Louda2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 51 of 136
Down 0–1, comes back16% 11 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 45
Franek1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite44% won 16 of 36
Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it60% 9 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeLouda2wins
AwayFranek6wins
2 of 8 to a deciderFranek leads 6–2, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLouda50%2 of 4
AwayFranek100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Louda4Franek4n = 8split evenly
S2Louda3Franek5n = 8Franek took 5 of 8
S3Louda1Franek7n = 8Franek took 7 of 8
S4Louda1Franek4n = 5Franek took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away338%
These 8 meetings
MetricLoudaFranekL − FBasisWins26−4in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match34.538.8−4.3per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLoudaFranekBasisWin rate · lifetime609 / 1195 vs 104 / 20651%50.5%609 / 1195 vs 104 / 206Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FranekLouda 2.63/Franek 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.5%
Franek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Franek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LOct 10 · 23:30J. Louda37911891T. Franek4011711113
LMay 14 · 06:30J. Louda2681080T. Franek341112113
LJan 17 · 02:00J. Louda3014790T. Franek381611113
LJan 10 · 04:00J. Louda321110831T. Franek4061211113
LJan 10 · 00:30J. Louda3811112862T. Franek45571111113
LNov 9 · 01:00J. Louda218490T. Franek331111113
WOct 26 · 03:30J. Louda4311118133T. Franek336511111
WOct 25 · 23:00J. Louda49118136113T. Franek47911111152
J. Louda10
WOct 10 · 22:00J. Louda1.83124511113M. Regner1.83101111782WOct 10 · 09:00A. Barton1.5011990J. Louda2.501311113LOct 10 · 08:30R. Urbaniec1.5012119113J. Louda2.501081161WOct 10 · 07:30J. Louda3.001312125123A. Barton1.3615101011102LOct 10 · 06:30F. Pusch1.73561111133J. Louda2.00111149112WOct 8 · 21:00P. Saleny1.807530J. Louda1.911111113LOct 8 · 20:30J. Louda2.3884100M. Wagner1.531111123LOct 8 · 19:00J. Louda2.1010350P. Saleny1.671211113LOct 8 · 18:00T. Zahradnik1.6111111110113J. Louda2.2081321292LOct 6 · 09:30M. Regner1.8391211113J. Louda1.831110571
T. Franek10
LOct 11 · 00:30M. Regner2.5011911113T. Franek1.50911571WOct 10 · 22:30T. Franek1.53111397113M. Sopko2.38611111182WOct 10 · 21:29T. Franek1.67115119113R. Pacha2.1031181142WOct 10 · 20:30M. Klement2.20115571T. Franek1.6181111113LOct 10 · 19:30T. Franek1.5399111352R. Pacha2.381111911113WOct 10 · 18:30M. Sopko2.2051070T. Franek1.611112113WOct 7 · 02:58T. Franek1.7311113113M. Skakal2.00531161WOct 7 · 02:30M. Hampl1.911198101T. Franek1.8091111123LOct 7 · 01:00M. Wagner1.851181112113T. Franek1.7531161472WOct 6 · 23:30T. Franek1.731111115113M. Skakal2.0098131192
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