TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Melashenko vs Valentyn Lobas 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911118611311––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:01 and never touched: 68.7% is still 68.7%
Graded at full timeValentyn Lobas to win
68.7%
68.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Melashenko above · Valentyn Lobas below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 70 set 4, 3-11 · our read held Valentyn Lobas at 68.7%
70 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Melashenko 15–34 Valentyn Lobas Oleksandr Melashenko has won 15 of their 49 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:0168.7%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 2.7pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Lobas
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
15-34 in 49
Lobas
Correct
gap of 19 in 49, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melashenko 1554 vs Lobas 1625
Lobas
Correct
both rated, 71 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melashenko 60% vs Lobas 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melashenko 60% vs Lobas 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Melashenko +1 · Lobas +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Lobas) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lobas form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelashenko 2.75 / Lobas 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Lobas)-2.7pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13266639
Melashenko2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 101 of 273
Down 0–1, comes back17% 29 of 167
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 102
Lobas1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite62% won 111 of 179
Up 2–0, closes it92% 60 of 65
Up 1–0, closes it76% 90 of 118
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelashenko4wins
AwayLobas6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLobas leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelashenko100%3 of 3
AwayLobas85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melashenko3Lobas7n = 10Lobas took 7 of 10
S2Melashenko5Lobas5n = 10split evenly
S3Melashenko5Lobas5n = 10split evenly
S4Melashenko2Lobas2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelashenkoLobasM − LBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match30.535.2−4.7per matchSweeps24−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelashenkoLobasBasisWin rate · lifetime433 / 864 vs 252 / 44050.1%57.3%433 / 864 vs 252 / 440Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LobasMelashenko 2.75/Lobas 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.7%
Lobas · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Lobas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 4 · 01:35O. Melashenko371316621V. Lobas51151411113
LSep 27 · 00:05O. Melashenko3741111382V. Lobas49118811113
LSep 25 · 22:05O. Melashenko216960V. Lobas331111113
WSep 19 · 22:35O. Melashenko351311113V. Lobas2211470
LSep 12 · 22:35O. Melashenko2712870V. Lobas361411113
LSep 11 · 23:05O. Melashenko135440V. Lobas331111113
WSep 5 · 22:35O. Melashenko341112113V. Lobas2461080
WSep 4 · 22:05O. Melashenko4491211123V. Lobas4011109101
WAug 30 · 01:35O. Melashenko4011711113V. Lobas30811741
LAug 23 · 00:05O. Melashenko1710340V. Lobas341211113
O. Melashenko10
LOct 10 · 03:05Y. Krol1.2861313113O. Melashenko3.5011111171WOct 10 · 01:05O. Melashenko1.6791111113V. Kobets2.10117831LOct 9 · 23:35O. Melashenko2.1074100O. Gomilko1.671111123WOct 9 · 21:35O. Melashenko1.531111113M. Marchuk2.389260LOct 9 · 03:55O. Naida2.0012116113O. Melashenko1.731061191WOct 9 · 02:55T. Ponomarenko1.406940O. Melashenko2.751111113WOct 9 · 01:25V. Panasenko1.25111113952O. Melashenko3.75841511113LOct 8 · 23:25K. Hrynenko1.73111177113O. Melashenko2.0075111142LOct 8 · 21:25R. Gnoevoy1.361111113O. Melashenko3.008310WOct 7 · 03:05O. Melashenko1.361111187113D. Rehotun3.0088201172
V. Lobas10
WOct 10 · 00:05Y. Krol2.00611691V. Lobas1.7311811113LOct 9 · 23:05V. Lobas1.44126671V. Kobets2.63101111113WOct 9 · 22:05O. Gomilko1.83941171V. Lobas1.8311115113LOct 4 · 03:05V. Lobas1.361110351V. Kobets3.0051211113WOct 4 · 01:35V. Lobas1.36151411113O. Melashenko3.001316621LOct 4 · 00:05V. Lobas1.6711471172Y. Krol2.10911115113LOct 3 · 22:35V. Lobas1.53114951K. Hrynenko2.3861111113LOct 3 · 21:05V. Lobas1.831551271O. Gomilko1.83131114113WOct 3 · 04:05V. Lobas1.91812711113O. Gomilko1.80111011672WOct 3 · 02:05M. Marchuk3.00113831V. Lobas1.3691111113
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