TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Dukhovenko vs Artem Chepurnyi 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8111012111––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:38 and never touched: 70.4% is still 70.4%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Dukhovenko to win
70.4%
70.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Dukhovenko above · Artem Chepurnyi below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 1-11
Point 53 set 3, 1-11 · our read held Oleksandr Dukhovenko at 70.4%
53 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Dukhovenko 149–62 Artem Chepurnyi Artem Chepurnyi has won 62 of their 211 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:3870.4%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 3.0pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Dukhovenko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
149-62 in 211
Dukhovenko
Wrong
gap of 87 in 211, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dukhovenko 1776 vs Chepurnyi 1765
Dukhovenko
Wrong
both rated, 11 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dukhovenko 60% vs Chepurnyi 20%
Dukhovenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dukhovenko 50% vs Chepurnyi 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dukhovenko +1 · Chepurnyi -3
Chepurnyi
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Strong (leans Dukhovenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chepurnyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDukhovenko 1.363 / Chepurnyi 3.00
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Dukhovenko)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13266215
Dukhovenko1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite74% won 204 of 277
Up 2–0, closes it96% 130 of 135
Up 1–0, closes it89% 162 of 183
Chepurnyi3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 41 of 111
Down 0–1, comes back19% 13 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDukhovenko9wins
AwayChepurnyi1wins
1 of 10 to a deciderDukhovenko leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDukhovenko100%9 of 9
AwayChepurnyin = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dukhovenko9Chepurnyi1n = 10Dukhovenko took 9 of 10
S2Dukhovenko6Chepurnyi4n = 10Dukhovenko took 6 of 10
S3Dukhovenko9Chepurnyi1n = 10Dukhovenko took 9 of 10
S4Dukhovenko5Chepurnyi0n = 5Dukhovenko took 5 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDukhovenkoChepurnyiD − CBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match38.027.9+10.1per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDukhovenkoChepurnyiBasisWin rate · lifetime529 / 833 vs 541 / 91063.5%59.5%529 / 833 vs 541 / 910Avg sets wonper match2.32.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DukhovenkoDukhovenko 1.36/Chepurnyi 3.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.4%
Dukhovenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Chepurnyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 26 · 22:25O. Dukhovenko4611912143A. Chepurnyi4181110121
WSep 25 · 19:25O. Dukhovenko331111113A. Chepurnyi175750
WSep 20 · 23:25O. Dukhovenko351111133A. Chepurnyi2467110
WSep 19 · 21:25O. Dukhovenko4111811113A. Chepurnyi30711391
WSep 18 · 19:25O. Dukhovenko331111113A. Chepurnyi239770
WSep 13 · 22:25O. Dukhovenko341111123A. Chepurnyi1844100
LSep 12 · 21:25O. Dukhovenko4691441182A. Chepurnyi501112115113
WSep 11 · 16:25O. Dukhovenko331111113A. Chepurnyi205690
WSep 6 · 23:25O. Dukhovenko4111811113A. Chepurnyi32811851
WSep 5 · 23:55O. Dukhovenko3811511113A. Chepurnyi24511621
O. Dukhovenko10
WOct 9 · 13:55O. Dukhovenko1.5081111113O. Mishchenko2.50116581LOct 4 · 19:25O. Dukhovenko2.6351131132V. Melnik1.44117117113WOct 4 · 17:55O. Dukhovenko2.001111113E. Pismenniy1.739740LOct 4 · 16:25O. Dukhovenko3.258760R. Cherevko1.331111113WOct 4 · 14:55O. Dukhovenko1.61121111113R. Reznychenko2.20146591LOct 4 · 13:25O. Dukhovenko3.5051380Y. Masko1.281115113WOct 3 · 19:25O. Dukhovenko2.63912411113V. Melnik1.44111011772LOct 3 · 17:55O. Dukhovenko1.44126111192R. Reznychenko2.63141164113WOct 3 · 16:25O. Dukhovenko3.4081112113Y. Masko1.301171081LOct 3 · 14:55O. Dukhovenko3.4068100R. Cherevko1.301111123
A. Chepurnyi10
LOct 9 · 14:25A. Chepurnyi2.3811118992Y. Kryvorotko1.53891111113LOct 7 · 19:55A. Chepurnyi1.4011116872V. Krokhmal2.75991111113LOct 7 · 17:55V. Kovalenko2.7514511113A. Chepurnyi1.401211991WOct 7 · 16:55A. Chepurnyi1.281111113O. Mishchenko3.507990LOct 7 · 15:55E. Rubtsov3.4011811113A. Chepurnyi1.30811881WOct 7 · 14:25A. Chepurnyi1.3311911113O. Kovalchuk3.25911891LOct 4 · 02:54A. Chepurnyi2.5010115141Y. Kryvorotko1.5012811163LOct 4 · 00:55Y. Kryvorotko1.571111123A. Chepurnyi2.2553100WOct 3 · 23:55A. Chepurnyi1.501111133O. Mishchenko2.5039110WOct 3 · 22:55P. Plakushchyi2.254950A. Chepurnyi1.571111113
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