TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Dukhovenko vs Roman Reznychenko 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1214116115119––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:39 and never touched: 67.3% is still 67.3%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Dukhovenko to win
67.3%
67.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Dukhovenko above · Roman Reznychenko below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 7-5
Point 71 set 4, 7-5 · our read held Oleksandr Dukhovenko at 67.3%
71 points drawn · the score is 8 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Oleksandr Dukhovenko 2–2 Roman Reznychenko Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:3967.3%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
clears by 5.4pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Dukhovenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dukhovenko 1788 vs Reznychenko 1581
Dukhovenko
Correct
both rated, 207 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dukhovenko 40% vs Reznychenko 80%
Reznychenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dukhovenko 50% vs Reznychenko 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dukhovenko -1 · Reznychenko +4
Reznychenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% · Clear lean (leans Dukhovenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Reznychenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDukhovenko 1.615 / Reznychenko 2.20
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Dukhovenko)+5.4pp
Setka Cup · #13240322
Dukhovenko1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite74% won 209 of 284
Up 2–0, closes it96% 134 of 139
Up 1–0, closes it89% 166 of 187
Reznychenko2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog32% won 95 of 299
Down 0–1, comes back11% 20 of 177
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 124
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeDukhovenko2wins
AwayReznychenko2wins
2 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDukhovenkon = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayReznychenko66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dukhovenko1Reznychenko3n = 4Reznychenko took 3 of 4
S2Dukhovenko2Reznychenko2n = 4split evenly
S3Dukhovenko4Reznychenko0n = 4Dukhovenko took 4 of 4
S4Dukhovenko2Reznychenko1n = 3Dukhovenko took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away250%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricDukhovenkoReznychenkoD − RBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match45.341.3+4.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDukhovenkoReznychenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime528 / 833 vs 233 / 70463.4%33.1%528 / 833 vs 233 / 704Avg sets wonper match2.31.5per matchAvg pointsper match36.633.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DukhovenkoDukhovenko 1.61/Reznychenko 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.3%
Dukhovenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Dukhovenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LOct 3 · 17:55O. Dukhovenko49126111192R. Reznychenko46141164113
LJan 24 · 17:25O. Dukhovenko47101111782R. Reznychenko45126511113
WJan 14 · 01:55O. Dukhovenko4071111113R. Reznychenko33117871
O. Dukhovenko10
LOct 4 · 13:25O. Dukhovenko3.5051380Y. Masko1.281115113WOct 3 · 19:25O. Dukhovenko2.63912411113V. Melnik1.44111011772LOct 3 · 17:55O. Dukhovenko1.44126111192R. Reznychenko2.63141164113WOct 3 · 16:25O. Dukhovenko3.4081112113Y. Masko1.301171081LOct 3 · 14:55O. Dukhovenko3.4068100R. Cherevko1.301111123LOct 3 · 13:25O. Dukhovenko1.50511671E. Pismenniy2.5011511113WSep 27 · 03:55O. Dukhovenko1.251111113I. Demchenko3.754970LSep 27 · 01:55O. Mishchenko2.2591111113O. Dukhovenko1.57117881WSep 27 · 00:55O. Dukhovenko1.5711138113O. Gavryshko2.253111141WSep 26 · 23:55Y. Kryvorotko1.831116431O. Dukhovenko1.8391811113
R. Reznychenko10
WOct 4 · 13:55V. Melnik1.40119671R. Reznychenko2.754111183WOct 3 · 19:55R. Reznychenko2.1011113113E. Pismenniy1.67471181WOct 3 · 17:55O. Dukhovenko1.44126111192R. Reznychenko2.63141164113WOct 3 · 16:55R. Reznychenko2.101611493R. Cherevko1.671461161LOct 3 · 15:55V. Melnik1.3311121273R. Reznychenko3.258141051LOct 3 · 14:25R. Reznychenko3.252141151Y. Masko1.3311168113LOct 3 · 04:25E. Pismenniy1.67891111113R. Reznychenko2.1011115202LOct 3 · 02:55R. Reznychenko3.257146101Y. Masko1.33111211123LOct 3 · 00:55V. Melnik1.331111113R. Reznychenko3.255560WOct 2 · 22:55S. Hohenko1.4011118842R. Reznychenko2.75741111113
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