TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Bartosz Czerwinski vs Tomasz Filbrandt 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
511118116911911
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:16 and never touched: 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeTomasz Filbrandt to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
92 points played in total.
Set by set
511118116911911
H2H Bartosz Czerwinski 10–5 Tomasz Filbrandt Tomasz Filbrandt has won 5 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:1656.9%Our read60.6%to break even at 1.65
short by 3.7pp60.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.65 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (56%)
Filbrandt
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-5 in 15
Czerwinski
Wrong
gap of 5 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Czerwinski 1554 vs Filbrandt 1605
Filbrandt
Correct
both rated, 50 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Czerwinski 80% vs Filbrandt 100%
Filbrandt
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Czerwinski 70% vs Filbrandt 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Czerwinski +3 · Filbrandt +8
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Filbrandt) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Filbrandt form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (61%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCzerwinski 2.10 / Filbrandt 1.65
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Filbrandt)-3.7pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13265213
Czerwinski2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog40% won 40 of 101
Down 0–1, comes back26% 15 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 32
Filbrandt1.65
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 13 days ago (Sep 26) · back after a break
Won last 8
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite64% won 121 of 190
Up 2–0, closes it98% 47 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it77% 82 of 107
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCzerwinski6wins
AwayFilbrandt4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderCzerwinski leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCzerwinski71.4%5 of 7
AwayFilbrandt66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Czerwinski7Filbrandt3n = 10Czerwinski took 7 of 10
S2Czerwinski6Filbrandt4n = 10Czerwinski took 6 of 10
S3Czerwinski4Filbrandt6n = 10Filbrandt took 6 of 10
S4Czerwinski5Filbrandt2n = 7Czerwinski took 5 of 7
S5Czerwinski1Filbrandt2n = 3Filbrandt took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricCzerwinskiFilbrandtC − FBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.137.5+2.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCzerwinskiFilbrandtBasisWin rate · lifetime495 / 1021 vs 654 / 124248.5%52.7%495 / 1021 vs 654 / 1242Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.239.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FilbrandtCzerwinski 2.10/Filbrandt 1.65
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.9%
Filbrandt · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Filbrandt won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LDec 28 · 20:05B. Czerwinski2611690T. Filbrandt351311113
WDec 8 · 21:35B. Czerwinski44101211113T. Filbrandt391210981
WDec 7 · 17:00B. Czerwinski3811113133T. Filbrandt378711111
WOct 29 · 18:50B. Czerwinski551111910143T. Filbrandt47841112122
WSep 4 · 14:45B. Czerwinski4211911113T. Filbrandt29211971
WFeb 27 · 13:20B. Czerwinski341111123T. Filbrandt2284100
LFeb 2 · 21:15B. Czerwinski52117911142T. Filbrandt52711117163
LJan 22 · 15:45B. Czerwinski48811811102T. Filbrandt49118117123
LJan 22 · 04:55B. Czerwinski29112791T. Filbrandt4181111113
WJan 21 · 13:45B. Czerwinski331111113T. Filbrandt247890
B. Czerwinski10
WOct 8 · 19:40B. Sulkowski2.25141090B. Czerwinski1.571612113WOct 8 · 18:50S. Brud1.83101181192B. Czerwinski1.83129119113WOct 8 · 18:05B. Czerwinski1.251110119113A. Mugowski3.7581271142LOct 8 · 16:30B. Czerwinski1.83791191P. Perzynski1.8311119113WOct 8 · 15:45M. Minda2.75311951B. Czerwinski1.4011911113WOct 8 · 14:40B. Czerwinski1.5811713113M. Minda2.258111181LOct 8 · 13:05B. Czerwinski1.80118130J. Zochniak1.911311153WOct 8 · 11:50B. Czerwinski1.361111113K. Klocek2.858570WOct 8 · 10:10B. Czerwinski1.781211113D. Solilo1.9110860LOct 8 · 09:00B. Czerwinski1.601112991B. Sulkowski2.1571411113
T. Filbrandt10
WSep 26 · 19:40D. Poloszczanski5.258630T. Filbrandt1.141111113WSep 26 · 18:55D. Kotwica5.102240T. Filbrandt1.121111113WSep 26 · 18:10T. Filbrandt1.3011811133A. Mugowski3.208114111WSep 26 · 16:35T. Filbrandt1.16101111113K. Guminski4.80129841WSep 26 · 15:50J. Glanowski3.60311751T. Filbrandt1.2511611113WSep 26 · 14:15T. Filbrandt1.25111187113T. Piotrowski3.2172111152WSep 26 · 12:35I. Dabrowski3.5097100T. Filbrandt1.291111123WSep 26 · 11:45D. Kosmal1.858760T. Filbrandt1.801111113LSep 26 · 10:55T. Filbrandt1.75118111182A. Wos1.95411313113LSep 26 · 09:45T. Filbrandt1.61119861B. Mleczko2.1951111113
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