Balazs Lei vs Marcelo Aguirre 2-3 — Challenger Series TT

TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT

Challenger Series TT

Played Oct 8Finished

Balazs Lei

Home

2.50

At publish

Won last 3

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 3

Final

2 – 3

Set by set

1191175114111719

Marcelo Aguirre

Away

1.50

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

8–2Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:58 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Marcelo Aguirre to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingBalazs Lei above · Marcelo Aguirre below

Set 1 · 11-9

Set 2 · 11-7

Set 3 · 5-11

Set 4 · 4-11

Set 5 · 17-19

Point 105 set 5, 17-19 · our read held Marcelo Aguirre at 54.0%

105 points played in total.

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 10:58

54.0%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50

short by 12.7pp

66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)

What took a side2 for · 1 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.50 (63%)

Aguirre

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

No meetings

—

No value

they have never met

Form (L5)

Lei 80% vs Aguirre 80%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Lei 60% vs Aguirre 80%

Aguirre

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Lei +3 · Aguirre -1

Lei

Wrong

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Aguirre) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Aguirre form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsLei 2.50 / Aguirre 1.50

Signal prob.46% / 54%

Edge (Aguirre)-12.7pp (anti-value)

Challenger Series TT · #13262729

Lei2.50

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 3

oldest → newest

80%takes the first set · 8 of 10

Aguirre1.50

80%won 8 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As favourite90% won 18 of 20

Up 2–0, closes it100% 11 of 11

Up 1–0, closes it94% 16 of 17

Head to head

H2H window

First meeting

These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.

Career, not this matchup

MetricLeiAguirreBasisWin rate · lifetime6 / 10 vs 23 / 2660%88.5%6 / 10 vs 23 / 26Avg sets wonper match2.22.9per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

Forecastthe model predicts this market

Match Winner

Aguirre

Lei 2.50/Aguirre 1.50

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

54%

Aguirre · sealed before the serve

What happened

2–3

Aguirre won

Handicap · Total sets · Score

These two have never met.

The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.

Recent Results

B. Lei10