TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Khandetskyi vs Hryhorii Kulishov 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6111715511911––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:36 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeHryhorii Kulishov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Serhii Khandetskyi @ 2.10 · Lost
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
How it is goingSerhii Khandetskyi above · Hryhorii Kulishov below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 17-15
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 85 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Hryhorii Kulishov at 54.0%
85 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Khandetskyi 20–15 Hryhorii Kulishov Hryhorii Kulishov has won 15 of their 35 meetings.
The pickContradict
Sealed 01:36Sent to Pro: Serhii Khandetskyi @ 2.10 · Lost
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
54.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 6.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 5 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kulishov
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
20-15 in 35
Khandetskyi
Wrong
gap of 5 in 35, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Khandetskyi 1562 vs Kulishov 1494
Khandetskyi
Wrong
both rated, 69 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Khandetskyi 100% vs Kulishov 20%
Khandetskyi
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Khandetskyi 70% vs Kulishov 50%
Khandetskyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Khandetskyi +5 · Kulishov -1
Khandetskyi
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 0 silent, and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kulishov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kulishov form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKhandetskyi 2.10 / Kulishov 1.666
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Khandetskyi)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13260942
Khandetskyi2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog47% won 73 of 155
Down 0–1, comes back18% 13 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 45
Kulishov1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 197 of 312
Up 2–0, closes it96% 114 of 119
Up 1–0, closes it76% 153 of 201
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKhandetskyi6wins
AwayKulishov4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKhandetskyi leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKhandetskyi100%5 of 5
AwayKulishov80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Khandetskyi5Kulishov5n = 10split evenly
S2Khandetskyi4Kulishov6n = 10Kulishov took 6 of 10
S3Khandetskyi5Kulishov5n = 10split evenly
S4Khandetskyi3Kulishov2n = 5Khandetskyi took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKhandetskyiKulishovKhandetskyi − KulishovBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.136.3−2.2per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKhandetskyiKulishovBasisWin rate · lifetime403 / 804 vs 493 / 93550.1%52.7%403 / 804 vs 493 / 935Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.039.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KhandetskyiKhandetskyi 2.10/Kulishov 1.67
Miss
What we said
54%
Kulishov · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Serhii Khandetskyi @ 2.10 · Lost
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
What happened
1–3
Kulishov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 8 · 03:35S. Khandetskyi521111910113H. Kulishov4787111292
WOct 6 · 01:05S. Khandetskyi331111113H. Kulishov238960
LOct 5 · 04:05S. Khandetskyi174580H. Kulishov331111113
LSep 29 · 23:05S. Khandetskyi154740H. Kulishov331111113
WSep 28 · 04:05S. Khandetskyi361311123H. Kulishov29118100
LSep 24 · 15:25S. Khandetskyi176560H. Kulishov331111113
WSep 23 · 22:55S. Khandetskyi44831111113H. Kulishov4311119662
LSep 22 · 00:05S. Khandetskyi4213811101H. Kulishov4715119123
WSep 16 · 22:35S. Khandetskyi4211514123H. Kulishov4181112101
WSep 15 · 03:35S. Khandetskyi4311119123H. Kulishov348511101
S. Khandetskyi10
WOct 9 · 04:05A. Peretiatko3.001179131S. Khandetskyi1.3671111153WOct 9 · 00:35M. Skliar2.755550S. Khandetskyi1.401111113WOct 8 · 22:35D. Kim1.61106150S. Khandetskyi2.201211173WOct 8 · 21:35M. Fomin1.7311711392S. Khandetskyi2.00411911113WOct 8 · 03:35H. Kulishov1.8387111292S. Khandetskyi1.831111910113WOct 8 · 02:35D. Kim1.611011681S. Khandetskyi2.2012411113LOct 8 · 01:05Y. Sokoltsov2.0091111113S. Khandetskyi1.73118891LOct 7 · 23:05M. Fomin1.671011116123S. Khandetskyi2.10124911102WOct 7 · 21:05M. Polysynskyi1.838990S. Khandetskyi1.831111113WOct 6 · 03:05Y. Sokoltsov2.001011541S. Khandetskyi1.7312511113
H. Kulishov10
WOct 9 · 03:35M. Skliar3.505470H. Kulishov1.281111113LOct 9 · 01:05M. Fomin2.10811911113H. Kulishov1.6711611992WOct 8 · 23:05A. Peretiatko2.756990H. Kulishov1.401111113LOct 8 · 21:05D. Kim1.80891111113H. Kulishov1.9111119792LOct 8 · 03:35H. Kulishov1.8387111292S. Khandetskyi1.831111910113LOct 8 · 01:35M. Polysynskyi2.25171153133H. Kulishov1.571591111112WOct 8 · 00:35H. Kulishov1.731111113D. Kim2.007860LOct 7 · 23:35Y. Sokoltsov2.75451111113H. Kulishov1.4011116782WOct 7 · 22:05H. Kulishov1.8341211113M. Fomin1.831110981WOct 6 · 03:35A. Peretiatko2.758511111H. Kulishov1.4011117133
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