TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Ulana Dronova vs Nataliia Plokhotniuk 3-1 · Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup Women
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191210911114––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:57 and never touched: 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeNataliia Plokhotniuk to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingUlana Dronova above · Nataliia Plokhotniuk below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 77 set 4, 11-4 · our read held Nataliia Plokhotniuk at 56.5%
77 points played in total.
H2H Ulana Dronova 20–20 Nataliia Plokhotniuk Dead even across their 40 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:5756.5%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 7.2pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Plokhotniuk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
20-20 in 40
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dronova 1679 vs Plokhotniuk 1680
Plokhotniuk
Wrong
both rated, 1 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dronova 40% vs Plokhotniuk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dronova 50% vs Plokhotniuk 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dronova +1 · Plokhotniuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Plokhotniuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Plokhotniuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDronova 2.25 / Plokhotniuk 1.571
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Plokhotniuk)-7.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup Women · #13260931
Dronova2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 9 of 20
Down 0–1, comes back46% 5 of 11
Plokhotniuk1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 46 of 70
Up 2–0, closes it100% 26 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it88% 38 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDronova4wins
AwayPlokhotniuk6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderPlokhotniuk leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDronova50%3 of 6
AwayPlokhotniuk75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dronova6Plokhotniuk4n = 10Dronova took 6 of 10
S2Dronova4Plokhotniuk6n = 10Plokhotniuk took 6 of 10
S3Dronova3Plokhotniuk6n = 9Plokhotniuk took 6 of 9
S4Dronova3Plokhotniuk5n = 8Plokhotniuk took 5 of 8
S5Dronova2Plokhotniuk2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricDronovaPlokhotniukD − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.042.4−2.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDronovaPlokhotniukBasisWin rate · lifetime54 / 110 vs 106 / 17849.1%59.6%54 / 110 vs 106 / 178Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.937.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PlokhotniukDronova 2.25/Plokhotniuk 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.5%
Plokhotniuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Dronova won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WOct 8 · 09:00U. Dronova4311129113N. Plokhotniuk349101141
WOct 7 · 09:00U. Dronova43101111113N. Plokhotniuk35129681
WSep 17 · 11:00U. Dronova49117119113N. Plokhotniuk3971131172
WSep 16 · 11:30U. Dronova51111185163N. Plokhotniuk54991111142
LAug 13 · 10:30U. Dronova178720N. Plokhotniuk331111113
LAug 12 · 07:30U. Dronova44115111162N. Plokhotniuk52911813113
LApr 7 · 07:30U. Dronova3611271152N. Plokhotniuk46711116113
LFeb 26 · 07:05U. Dronova381011891N. Plokhotniuk4112711113
LFeb 25 · 12:40U. Dronova3912410131N. Plokhotniuk48101112153
U. Dronova10
WOct 8 · 10:04N. Plokhotniuk1.6799100U. Dronova2.101111123WOct 8 · 08:00U. Dronova2.251111113A. Rzhevska1.575980LOct 8 · 06:30U. Dronova3.504620I. Yevtodii1.281111113LOct 8 · 05:30U. Dronova4.006111191A. Ovriakh1.2211413113LOct 7 · 11:00U. Dronova3.502511111A. Ovriakh1.2811116133WOct 7 · 09:00N. Plokhotniuk1.53129681U. Dronova2.38101111113LOct 7 · 08:00U. Dronova1.837520A. Rzhevska1.831111113WOct 7 · 07:00A. Kurtenko2.107870U. Dronova1.671111113WSep 17 · 11:00U. Dronova2.50117119113N. Plokhotniuk1.5071131172WSep 17 · 09:00I. Yevtodii1.221110581U. Dronova4.0091211113
N. Plokhotniuk10
LOct 8 · 10:04N. Plokhotniuk1.6799100U. Dronova2.101111123LOct 8 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk3.0099111162I. Yevtodii1.36111169113WOct 8 · 06:00N. Plokhotniuk1.141111113A. Rzhevska5.006350LOct 8 · 04:30N. Plokhotniuk2.63981581A. Ovriakh1.44111113113WOct 7 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk1.301111614113A. Kurtenko3.4073111652LOct 7 · 09:00N. Plokhotniuk1.53129681U. Dronova2.38101111113WOct 7 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk3.008111110123I. Yevtodii1.36118412102WOct 7 · 06:00N. Plokhotniuk1.171111113A. Rzhevska4.505580LOct 7 · 04:30N. Plokhotniuk2.506580A. Ovriakh1.501111113LSep 17 · 11:00U. Dronova2.50117119113N. Plokhotniuk1.5071131172
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