TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Krzysztof Kapik vs Grzegorz Poliniewicz 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
311115511115811
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:44 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Kapik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
81 points played in total.
Set by set
311115511115811
H2H Krzysztof Kapik 43–42 Grzegorz Poliniewicz Grzegorz Poliniewicz has won 42 of their 85 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:4454.0%Our read56.2%to break even at 1.78
short by 2.2pp56.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.78 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.78 (52%)
Kapik
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
43-42 in 85
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kapik 1684 vs Poliniewicz 1686
Poliniewicz
Correct
both rated, 3 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kapik 20% vs Poliniewicz 40%
Poliniewicz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kapik 50% vs Poliniewicz 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kapik -4 · Poliniewicz -2
Kapik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kapik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Poliniewicz form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKapik 1.78 / Poliniewicz 1.93
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kapik)-2.2pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13260378
Kapik1.78
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 220 of 360
Up 2–0, closes it96% 106 of 111
Up 1–0, closes it78% 149 of 192
Poliniewicz1.93
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 128 of 358
Down 0–1, comes back17% 35 of 203
Down 0–2, comes back7% 9 of 125
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKapik6wins
AwayPoliniewicz4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderKapik leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKapik100%4 of 4
AwayPoliniewicz66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kapik4Poliniewicz6n = 10Poliniewicz took 6 of 10
S2Kapik5Poliniewicz5n = 10split evenly
S3Kapik3Poliniewicz7n = 10Poliniewicz took 7 of 10
S4Kapik4Poliniewicz4n = 8split evenly
S5Kapik5Poliniewicz1n = 6Kapik took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKapikPoliniewiczK − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.644.0−1.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKapikPoliniewiczBasisWin rate · lifetime1116 / 2102 vs 1210 / 209953.1%57.7%1116 / 2102 vs 1210 / 2099Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.039.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KapikKapik 1.78/Poliniewicz 1.93
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kapik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Poliniewicz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 7 · 11:20K. Kapik155730G. Poliniewicz331111113
LOct 5 · 03:00K. Kapik33511981G. Poliniewicz3811511113
WOct 2 · 09:45K. Kapik501161111113G. Poliniewicz4981181392
LOct 1 · 09:45K. Kapik43101141172G. Poliniewicz52129119113
WSep 28 · 07:15K. Kapik3711123113G. Poliniewicz346101171
WSep 25 · 10:05K. Kapik53139119113G. Poliniewicz50111191182
WSep 25 · 05:35K. Kapik54148911123G. Poliniewicz511211117102
LSep 24 · 10:55K. Kapik30812100G. Poliniewicz371114123
WSep 23 · 03:20K. Kapik50911811113G. Poliniewicz4811811992
WSep 21 · 09:45K. Kapik611119119113G. Poliniewicz48131711162
K. Kapik10
LOct 7 · 13:50K. Kapik1.951110891M. Rutkowski1.7581211113LOct 7 · 12:35K. Kapik1.8071113942D. Kosmal1.911191111113LOct 7 · 11:20K. Kapik1.705730G. Poliniewicz2.051111113LOct 7 · 10:05J. Stecyszyn1.5711811113K. Kapik2.20611931WOct 7 · 09:20K. Kapik1.6011101112163K. Wloczko2.20712714142WOct 7 · 08:30K. Kapik1.85914811113M. Rutkowski1.85111211472LOct 7 · 06:50K. Kapik2.551124592K. Wloczko1.45611111113WOct 7 · 05:35K. Kapik2.051211712113J. Kuzmicz1.65107111492WOct 7 · 04:00K. Kapik1.33111197113J. Zochniak3.1074111182WOct 7 · 03:00K. Kapik1.841111811113D. Kosmal1.8741311682
G. Poliniewicz10
LOct 8 · 08:30D. Michna2.021110911113G. Poliniewicz1.7181211922LOct 8 · 07:15G. Poliniewicz2.759860J. Stecyszyn1.401111113LOct 8 · 06:00P. Jendrzejewski1.90111153113G. Poliniewicz1.8099111152WOct 8 · 04:50J. Mitas2.2591112111G. Poliniewicz1.5711414133LOct 8 · 03:20K. Wloczko1.421111113G. Poliniewicz2.607790WOct 7 · 14:15D. Kosmal2.15881171G. Poliniewicz1.6111117113LOct 7 · 13:25K. Wloczko1.354201412113G. Poliniewicz2.901118121472WOct 7 · 11:20K. Kapik1.705730G. Poliniewicz2.051111113WOct 7 · 10:30M. Rutkowski1.8010131111112G. Poliniewicz1.911211139133LOct 7 · 09:00J. Stecyszyn1.501111113G. Poliniewicz2.504570
Upcoming Matches
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G. Poliniewicz
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