TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jerzy Michalik vs Dariusz Molenda 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8117111715811––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:24 and never touched: 85.6% is still 85.6%
Graded at full timeDariusz Molenda to win
85.6%
85.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
88 points played in total.
Set by set
8117111715811––
H2H Jerzy Michalik 0–19 Dariusz Molenda Jerzy Michalik has won 0 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:2485.6%Our read78.7%to break even at 1.27
clears by 6.9pp78.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.27 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.27 (72%)
Molenda
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-19 in 19
Molenda
Correct
gap of 19 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michalik 1436 vs Molenda 1590
Molenda
Correct
both rated, 154 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michalik 40% vs Molenda 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michalik 60% vs Molenda 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Michalik -1 · Molenda +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 86% · Strong (leans Molenda) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Molenda form (40%) is below what odds imply (79%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichalik 3.25 / Molenda 1.27
Signal prob.14% / 86%
Edge (Molenda)+6.9pp
TT Elite Series · #13260316
Michalik3.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 118 of 332
Down 0–1, comes back17% 32 of 187
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 115
Molenda1.27
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite82% won 110 of 135
Up 2–0, closes it99% 75 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it94% 97 of 103
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMichalik0wins
AwayMolenda10wins
1 of 10 to a deciderMolenda leads 10–0, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichalikn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMolenda100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michalik2Molenda8n = 10Molenda took 8 of 10
S2Michalik2Molenda8n = 10Molenda took 8 of 10
S3Michalik3Molenda7n = 10Molenda took 7 of 10
S4Michalik0Molenda6n = 6Molenda took 6 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMichalikMolendaMichalik − MolendaBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match31.439.2−7.8per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichalikMolendaBasisWin rate · lifetime575 / 1215 vs 232 / 29647.3%78.4%575 / 1215 vs 232 / 296Avg sets wonper match1.92.6per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MolendaMichalik 3.25/Molenda 1.27
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
85.6%
Molenda · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Molenda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 21:30J. Michalik205780D. Molenda331111113
LSep 10 · 21:30J. Michalik31131260D. Molenda401514113
LAug 27 · 22:20J. Michalik184770D. Molenda331111113
LAug 6 · 19:10J. Michalik379711101D. Molenda3811114123
LJul 23 · 19:10J. Michalik34711881D. Molenda4111811113
LJul 9 · 20:45J. Michalik4111118742D. Molenda47861111113
LJul 2 · 20:45J. Michalik351071171D. Molenda3712113113
LJun 25 · 18:20J. Michalik2981470D. Molenda381116113
LJun 18 · 19:10J. Michalik31117941D. Molenda4181111113
LJun 11 · 19:10J. Michalik387121181D. Molenda4411148113
J. Michalik10
WOct 9 · 00:20M. Machelski3.40161111121J. Michalik1.2818133143LOct 8 · 23:05J. Michalik2.8710960J. Zelezik1.371211113LOct 8 · 20:20J. Michalik1.417880M. Machelski2.601111113WOct 8 · 18:45J. Michalik1.9011112113A. Krezel1.80991151LOct 8 · 17:30J. Michalik1.6781151342M. Wolny2.101181111113LOct 8 · 02:10J. Michalik1.83731141A. Krezel1.8311119113WOct 8 · 00:35M. Lewczuk1.9168111182J. Michalik1.80111166113WOct 7 · 23:45Z. Nocun1.53119111192J. Michalik2.38511137113WOct 7 · 22:55J. Michalik2.7511116113H. Tkaczyk1.40871141LOct 7 · 21:45J. Michalik2.637890J. Zelezik1.441111113
D. Molenda10
LOct 8 · 22:20A. Krezel2.65581111143D. Molenda1.43111186122WOct 8 · 20:45D. Molenda1.331113133J. Zelezik2.95911110WOct 8 · 19:10D. Molenda1.151111133M. Wolny5.0097110LOct 8 · 18:20M. Machelski6.5012811113D. Molenda1.111011951LOct 1 · 22:20M. Lewczuk1.431111143D. Molenda2.6389120LOct 1 · 21:30M. Zielinski—111166113D. Molenda—87111192WOct 1 · 20:45D. Molenda1.10117211113A. Staniczek5.3081111232WOct 1 · 19:10D. Molenda1.121111113M. Wolny5.007790WOct 1 · 18:20A. Zmijewski1.5711711462D. Molenda2.26711911113WSep 24 · 22:20Z. Nocun3.32811441D. Molenda1.2911511113
Upcoming Matches
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