TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Michal Machelski vs Dariusz Molenda 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
0–10Last 10Lost last 10
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1210811119115––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:12 and never touched: 89.2% is still 89.2%
Graded at full timeDariusz Molenda to win
89.2%
89.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
77 points played in total.
Set by set
1210811119115––
H2H Michal Machelski 2–6 Dariusz Molenda Michal Machelski has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:1289.2%Our read90.1%to break even at 1.11
short by 0.9pp90.1% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.11 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.11 (85%)
Molenda
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-6 in 8
Molenda
Wrong
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Machelski 1204 vs Molenda 1610
Molenda
Wrong
both rated, 406 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Machelski 0% vs Molenda 60%
Molenda
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Machelski 0% vs Molenda 70%
Molenda
Wrong
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Machelski -10 · Molenda -2
Machelski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 89% · Strong (leans Molenda) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Molenda form (60%) is below what odds imply (90%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMachelski 6.50 / Molenda 1.11
Signal prob.11% / 89%
Edge (Molenda)-0.9pp
TT Elite Series · #13259041
Machelski6.50
0%won 0 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 07)
Lost last 10
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog32% won 118 of 364
Down 0–1, comes back20% 42 of 213
Down 0–2, comes back4% 5 of 125
Molenda1.11
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 7 days ago (Oct 01) · back after a break
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite82% won 110 of 135
Up 2–0, closes it99% 75 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it94% 97 of 103
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeMachelski2wins
AwayMolenda6wins
1 of 8 to a deciderMolenda leads 6–2, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMachelski50%2 of 4
AwayMolenda100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Machelski4Molenda4n = 8split evenly
S2Machelski5Molenda3n = 8Machelski took 5 of 8
S3Machelski2Molenda6n = 8Molenda took 6 of 8
S4Machelski1Molenda5n = 6Molenda took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away450%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricMachelskiMolendaMachelski − MolendaBasisWins26−4in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match33.438.1−4.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMachelskiMolendaBasisWin rate · lifetime399 / 1087 vs 230 / 29236.7%78.8%399 / 1087 vs 230 / 292Avg sets wonper match1.72.6per matchAvg pointsper match35.538.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MolendaMachelski 6.50/Molenda 1.11
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
89.2%
Molenda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Machelski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 10 · 20:45M. Machelski24511261D. Molenda4111811113
WJul 23 · 22:20M. Machelski4011117113D. Molenda25921131
LJul 21 · 18:20M. Machelski26511731D. Molenda3911611113
WJul 9 · 18:20M. Machelski361213113D. Molenda27101160
LJul 2 · 18:20M. Machelski344121171D. Molenda45111013113
LMay 28 · 18:20M. Machelski301010100D. Molenda361212123
LJan 20 · 21:45M. Machelski381311591D. Molenda46111311113
LNov 20 · 21:45M. Machelski3912811532D. Molenda461011311113
M. Machelski10
LOct 7 · 04:30M. Machelski2.359980M. Brunner1.501111113LOct 7 · 03:25M. Machelski—10760D. Bartosik—1211113LOct 7 · 02:20M. Machelski2.87311791A. Fomin1.3711411113LOct 7 · 00:45H. Tkaczyk—6111111113M. Machelski—11137552LOct 6 · 23:55M. Machelski3.147970M. Zielinski1.321111113LOct 6 · 22:20M. Machelski4.8014671162H. Tkaczyk1.161211116113LOct 6 · 21:05M. Machelski—1310981D. Bartosik—111211113LOct 6 · 19:55M. Machelski2.756660A. Fomin1.401111113LOct 6 · 18:45M. Brunner1.6021111113M. Machelski2.20118461LOct 6 · 17:55M. Machelski3.459770M. Zielinski1.261111113
D. Molenda10
LOct 1 · 22:20M. Lewczuk1.431111143D. Molenda2.6389120LOct 1 · 21:30M. Zielinski—111166113D. Molenda—87111192WOct 1 · 20:45D. Molenda1.10117211113A. Staniczek5.3081111232WOct 1 · 19:10D. Molenda1.121111113M. Wolny5.007790WOct 1 · 18:20A. Zmijewski1.5711711462D. Molenda2.26711911113WSep 24 · 22:20Z. Nocun3.32811441D. Molenda1.2911511113WSep 24 · 21:30M. Baran1.691181112102D. Molenda2.06811714123WSep 24 · 20:45D. Molenda1.241111113G. Mucha3.755880LSep 24 · 19:10D. Molenda1.2351111862M. Lewczuk3.80119611113WSep 24 · 18:20A. Staniczek6.705870D. Molenda1.041111113
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