TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Bondarchuk vs Oleksandr Ivchuk 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1178111210511711
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:15 and never touched: 81.8% is still 81.8%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Bondarchuk to win
81.8%
81.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Bondarchuk above · Oleksandr Ivchuk below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 93 set 5, 7-11 · our read held Oleksandr Bondarchuk at 81.8%
93 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Bondarchuk 30–1 Oleksandr Ivchuk Oleksandr Ivchuk has won 1 of their 31 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:1581.8%Our read83.3%to break even at 1.20
short by 1.5pp83.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.20 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Bondarchuk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
30-1 in 31
Bondarchuk
Wrong
gap of 29 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bondarchuk 1888 vs Ivchuk 1670
Bondarchuk
Wrong
both rated, 218 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bondarchuk 40% vs Ivchuk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bondarchuk 60% vs Ivchuk 20%
Bondarchuk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bondarchuk +1 · Ivchuk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 82% · Strong (leans Bondarchuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ivchuk form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (23%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBondarchuk 1.20 / Ivchuk 4.333
Signal prob.82% / 18%
Edge (Bondarchuk)-1.5pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13256168
Bondarchuk1.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite73% won 84 of 115
Up 2–0, closes it98% 41 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it87% 59 of 68
Ivchuk4.33
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog26% won 14 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back9% 3 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBondarchuk10wins
AwayIvchuk0wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBondarchuk leads 10–0, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBondarchuk100%6 of 6
AwayIvchuk0%0 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bondarchuk6Ivchuk4n = 10Bondarchuk took 6 of 10
S2Bondarchuk7Ivchuk3n = 10Bondarchuk took 7 of 10
S3Bondarchuk9Ivchuk1n = 10Bondarchuk took 9 of 10
S4Bondarchuk6Ivchuk0n = 6Bondarchuk took 6 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBondarchukIvchukB − IBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.128.9+10.2per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBondarchukIvchukBasisWin rate · lifetime188 / 328 vs 346 / 52057.3%66.5%188 / 328 vs 346 / 520Avg sets wonper match2.22.4per matchAvg pointsper match38.239.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BondarchukBondarchuk 1.20/Ivchuk 4.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
81.8%
Bondarchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Ivchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 6 · 14:00O. Bondarchuk331111113O. Ivchuk238870
WSep 18 · 12:20O. Bondarchuk331111113O. Ivchuk214890
WSep 17 · 15:30O. Bondarchuk331111113O. Ivchuk216690
WAug 21 · 12:30O. Bondarchuk4011612113O. Ivchuk313111071
WAug 13 · 10:44O. Bondarchuk3961111113O. Ivchuk29115851
WAug 13 · 07:05O. Bondarchuk4211911113O. Ivchuk31811481
WAug 12 · 17:34O. Bondarchuk4291111113O. Ivchuk29114861
WAug 12 · 14:00O. Bondarchuk521211711113O. Ivchuk4314811642
WAug 8 · 08:50O. Bondarchuk341111123O. Ivchuk2156100
WAug 7 · 15:00O. Bondarchuk43371111113O. Ivchuk4011116572
O. Bondarchuk10
WOct 7 · 10:20O. Belskyi5.0054100O. Bondarchuk1.141111123LOct 7 · 09:20O. Bondarchuk1.33116881D. Neborak3.2561111113LOct 7 · 08:20O. Zhurba1.501111113O. Bondarchuk2.507950LOct 7 · 06:50O. Bondarchuk1.57119891O. Shkurupii2.2541111113WOct 6 · 18:30O. Belskyi5.0061080O. Bondarchuk1.141112113LOct 6 · 17:30O. Shkurupii2.2511911113O. Bondarchuk1.57911991WOct 6 · 16:00O. Zhurba1.404850O. Bondarchuk2.751111113WOct 6 · 14:00O. Ivchuk4.338870O. Bondarchuk1.201111113WOct 6 · 12:00D. Neborak3.25117581O. Bondarchuk1.3381111113WOct 4 · 09:30O. Shkurupii2.38111011542O. Bondarchuk1.53612511113
O. Ivchuk10
WOct 7 · 11:20D. Neborak1.911011551O. Ivchuk1.8012611113LOct 7 · 09:50O. Zhurba1.081511123O. Ivchuk7.00138100LOct 7 · 07:50O. Shkurupii2.001111124113O. Ivchuk1.73713101172WOct 7 · 05:50O. Belskyi1.7341110101O. Ivchuk2.0011912123LOct 6 · 19:00O. Ivchuk1.611769101O. Shkurupii2.20151111123LOct 6 · 17:00O. Zhurba1.141111113O. Ivchuk5.004550LOct 6 · 15:00D. Neborak1.8310111111113O. Ivchuk1.8312138892LOct 6 · 14:00O. Ivchuk4.338870O. Bondarchuk1.201111113LOct 6 · 13:00O. Belskyi1.9111511113O. Ivchuk1.80411751LSep 18 · 12:20O. Ivchuk4.004890O. Bondarchuk1.221111113
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