TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Iurii Hrekh vs Oleksandr Pohonov 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116114115––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:22 and never touched: 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeIurii Hrekh to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingIurii Hrekh above · Oleksandr Pohonov below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 48 set 3, 11-5 · our read held Iurii Hrekh at 58.1%
48 points played in total.
H2H Iurii Hrekh 16–13 Oleksandr Pohonov Oleksandr Pohonov has won 13 of their 29 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:2258.1%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.8pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Hrekh
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
16-13 in 29
Hrekh
Correct
gap of 3 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hrekh 1766 vs Pohonov 1740
Hrekh
Correct
both rated, 26 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hrekh 60% vs Pohonov 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hrekh 50% vs Pohonov 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hrekh +3 · Pohonov -1
Hrekh
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Hrekh) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pohonov form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHrekh 1.615 / Pohonov 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Hrekh)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13256135
Hrekh1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 163 of 272
Up 2–0, closes it99% 98 of 99
Up 1–0, closes it82% 128 of 156
Pohonov2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog32% won 46 of 144
Down 0–1, comes back19% 17 of 90
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHrekh5wins
AwayPohonov5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHrekh60%3 of 5
AwayPohonov60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hrekh5Pohonov5n = 10split evenly
S2Hrekh7Pohonov3n = 10Hrekh took 7 of 10
S3Hrekh3Pohonov7n = 10Pohonov took 7 of 10
S4Hrekh4Pohonov6n = 10Pohonov took 6 of 10
S5Hrekh3Pohonov2n = 5Hrekh took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHrekhPohonovH − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.140.7+1.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHrekhPohonovBasisWin rate · lifetime313 / 592 vs 304 / 58852.9%51.7%313 / 592 vs 304 / 588Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.438.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HrekhHrekh 1.61/Pohonov 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Hrekh · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Hrekh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 6 · 20:00I. Hrekh518111011113O. Pohonov4011612562
WOct 4 · 00:45I. Hrekh5611101113113O. Pohonov4691261542
WOct 1 · 07:35I. Hrekh4181111113O. Pohonov29113781
LSep 30 · 15:05I. Hrekh47101171182O. Pohonov42125113113
LSep 17 · 06:05I. Hrekh361110961O. Pohonov4281211113
WSep 16 · 12:05I. Hrekh4111118113O. Pohonov33691171
LSep 14 · 23:15I. Hrekh30512491O. Pohonov43111011113
WAug 30 · 23:15I. Hrekh521112108113O. Pohonov48610121192
LAug 23 · 21:45I. Hrekh29471171O. Pohonov4011117113
LAug 21 · 06:05I. Hrekh3811114572O. Pohonov44651111113
I. Hrekh10
WOct 7 · 12:05I. Hrekh1.5711117113V. Zharskiy2.25341171WOct 7 · 02:00I. Hrekh1.57511811113V. Zharskiy2.2511811562WOct 7 · 00:30I. Hrekh1.531111113B. Chaikovskyi2.385740LOct 6 · 23:00I. Hrekh1.83131180I. Sukovatyi1.831513113LOct 6 · 21:30I. Hrekh1.9112360A. Romanenko1.801411113WOct 6 · 20:00I. Hrekh1.808111011113O. Pohonov1.9111612562LOct 4 · 02:15I. Hrekh1.834680A. Romanenko1.831111113WOct 4 · 00:45I. Hrekh1.8011101113113O. Pohonov1.9191261542LOct 3 · 23:15I. Hrekh1.8314771172I. Sukovatyi1.831211114113LOct 3 · 21:45I. Hrekh1.6765110O. Rodin2.101111133
O. Pohonov10
LOct 7 · 12:35B. Chaikovskyi1.50111111113O. Pohonov2.50136241WOct 7 · 02:30B. Chaikovskyi1.5048121152O. Pohonov2.501111104113WOct 7 · 01:30A. Romanenko2.5011714101O. Pohonov1.5081116123LOct 7 · 00:00V. Zharskiy2.1013119123O. Pohonov1.6711911101WOct 6 · 22:00I. Sukovatyi3.005690O. Pohonov1.361111113LOct 6 · 20:00I. Hrekh1.808111011113O. Pohonov1.9111612562WOct 5 · 03:15V. Slozka1.831011741O. Pohonov1.8312611113WOct 5 · 01:45O. Pohonov1.801111113O. Rodin1.918980WOct 4 · 23:45V. Kaidakov1.8391151462O. Pohonov1.831141112113LOct 4 · 00:45I. Hrekh1.8011101113113O. Pohonov1.9191261542
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.