TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Viktor Slozka vs Oleksandr Pohonov 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012116711411––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:00 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Pohonov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingViktor Slozka above · Oleksandr Pohonov below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 72 set 4, 4-11 · our read held Oleksandr Pohonov at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Viktor Slozka 18–13 Oleksandr Pohonov Oleksandr Pohonov has won 13 of their 31 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:0054.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Pohonov
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
18-13 in 31
Slozka
Wrong
gap of 5 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Slozka 1723 vs Pohonov 1707
Slozka
Wrong
both rated, 16 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Slozka 60% vs Pohonov 40%
Slozka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Slozka 50% vs Pohonov 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Slozka -1 · Pohonov +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Pohonov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pohonov form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSlozka 1.833 / Pohonov 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Slozka)-8.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13240249
Slozka1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Pohonov1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSlozka7wins
AwayPohonov3wins
7 of 10 to a deciderSlozka leads 7–3, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSlozka66.7%4 of 6
AwayPohonov25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Slozka6Pohonov4n = 10Slozka took 6 of 10
S2Slozka5Pohonov5n = 10split evenly
S3Slozka5Pohonov5n = 10split evenly
S4Slozka7Pohonov3n = 10Slozka took 7 of 10
S5Slozka4Pohonov3n = 7Slozka took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSlozkaPohonovS − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match46.243.0+3.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSlozkaPohonovBasisWin rate · lifetime394 / 856 vs 300 / 58146%51.6%394 / 856 vs 300 / 581Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PohonovSlozka 1.83/Pohonov 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Pohonov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Pohonov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 1 · 09:35V. Slozka4181111113O. Pohonov32119931
WSep 30 · 17:05V. Slozka4111115143O. Pohonov366711121
WSep 6 · 01:45V. Slozka47131211113O. Pohonov371510571
WSep 2 · 01:30V. Slozka47115119113O. Pohonov4161191142
LAug 31 · 03:15V. Slozka3711341182O. Pohonov45511117113
LAug 23 · 20:15V. Slozka51117151172O. Pohonov54711178113
WJul 27 · 21:15V. Slozka50141186113O. Pohonov46127111152
WJul 27 · 01:45V. Slozka51781211133O. Pohonov471111104112
WJul 12 · 22:15V. Slozka53111399113O. Pohonov42611111132
LJul 2 · 13:05V. Slozka4467111192O. Pohonov50111189113
V. Slozka10
LOct 5 · 01:15R. Konkulovskyi1.83111175113V. Slozka1.8387111182WOct 4 · 23:15M. Loboda1.6716871182V. Slozka2.101411114113WOct 4 · 22:15V. Slozka2.1081711113O. Rodin1.671115991LOct 4 · 21:15V. Kaidakov1.8311115113V. Slozka1.83651191WOct 2 · 11:05A. Nazrin1.619990V. Slozka2.201111113LOct 2 · 10:05V. Kaidakov1.83911118133V. Slozka1.83114911112LOct 2 · 08:35M. Loboda1.7311119113V. Slozka2.00691161WOct 2 · 06:35V. Krokhmal1.91871171V. Slozka1.8011117113WOct 2 · 04:35I. Hrekh1.61118111052V. Slozka2.20711412113LOct 1 · 10:35I. Hrekh1.731111113V. Slozka2.005260
O. Pohonov10
WOct 5 · 01:45O. Pohonov1.801111113O. Rodin1.918980WOct 4 · 23:45V. Kaidakov1.8391151462O. Pohonov1.831141112113LOct 4 · 21:45M. Loboda1.611111113O. Pohonov2.208830LOct 4 · 20:45R. Konkulovskyi2.2011412113O. Pohonov1.617111091LOct 4 · 02:45O. Pohonov2.5064111282B. Chaikovskyi1.501111810113LOct 4 · 00:45I. Hrekh1.8011101113113O. Pohonov1.9191261542WOct 3 · 23:45O. Pohonov1.8311124113O. Rodin1.832101181LOct 3 · 22:45A. Romanenko2.3811711113O. Pohonov1.53911661WOct 3 · 21:15O. Pohonov1.361111113I. Sukovatyi3.005390WOct 1 · 11:35O. Pohonov1.28912911113I. Sukovatyi3.50111011782
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