TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Iurii Hrekh vs Vitaliy Zharskiy 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
113114711117––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:04 and never touched: 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeIurii Hrekh to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingIurii Hrekh above · Vitaliy Zharskiy below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 65 set 4, 11-7 · our read held Iurii Hrekh at 59.7%
65 points played in total.
H2H Iurii Hrekh 1–0 Vitaliy Zharskiy Vitaliy Zharskiy has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:0459.7%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.0pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Hrekh
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Hrekh 1757 vs Zharskiy 1674
Hrekh
Correct
both rated, 84 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hrekh 60% vs Zharskiy 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hrekh 50% vs Zharskiy 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hrekh +2 · Zharskiy -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Hrekh) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zharskiy form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHrekh 1.571 / Zharskiy 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Hrekh)-4.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13255705
Hrekh1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 163 of 272
Up 2–0, closes it99% 98 of 99
Up 1–0, closes it82% 128 of 156
Zharskiy2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 40 of 100
Down 0–1, comes back19% 11 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeHrekh1wins
AwayZharskiy0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderHrekh leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricHrekhZharskiyH − ZBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match46.041.0+5.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHrekhZharskiyBasisWin rate · lifetime312 / 591 vs 280 / 56452.8%49.7%312 / 591 vs 280 / 564Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.436.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HrekhHrekh 1.57/Zharskiy 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.7%
Hrekh · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Hrekh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WOct 7 · 02:00I. Hrekh46511811113V. Zharskiy4111811562
I. Hrekh10
WOct 7 · 13:35I. Hrekh1.611111113O. Pohonov2.206450WOct 7 · 02:00I. Hrekh1.57511811113V. Zharskiy2.2511811562WOct 7 · 00:30I. Hrekh1.531111113B. Chaikovskyi2.385740LOct 6 · 23:00I. Hrekh1.83131180I. Sukovatyi1.831513113LOct 6 · 21:30I. Hrekh1.9112360A. Romanenko1.801411113WOct 6 · 20:00I. Hrekh1.808111011113O. Pohonov1.9111612562LOct 4 · 02:15I. Hrekh1.834680A. Romanenko1.831111113WOct 4 · 00:45I. Hrekh1.8011101113113O. Pohonov1.9191261542LOct 3 · 23:15I. Hrekh1.8314771172I. Sukovatyi1.831211114113LOct 3 · 21:45I. Hrekh1.6765110O. Rodin2.101111133
V. Zharskiy10
LOct 7 · 02:00I. Hrekh1.57511811113V. Zharskiy2.2511811562LOct 7 · 01:00V. Zharskiy2.384912101I. Sukovatyi1.53111110123WOct 7 · 00:00V. Zharskiy2.1013119123O. Pohonov1.6711911101WOct 6 · 22:30V. Zharskiy1.7311911113B. Chaikovskyi2.00911851WOct 6 · 20:30V. Zharskiy2.5071111113A. Romanenko1.50115871LSep 24 · 10:35B. Chaikovskyi2.2041211113V. Zharskiy1.611110681WSep 24 · 09:35V. Zharskiy2.631111113I. Sukovatyi1.444870LSep 24 · 08:35V. Zharskiy1.61991191O. Pohonov2.2011117113LSep 24 · 07:05V. Zharskiy2.505111041G. Kuzmenko1.5011712113WSep 24 · 05:05V. Zharskiy2.6341111113A. Romanenko1.44117761
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