TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Bohdan Chaikovskyi vs Vitaliy Zharskiy 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 24Finished
Bohdan Chaikovskyi
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
4111210116118––
Vitaliy Zharskiy
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:12 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVitaliy Zharskiy to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingBohdan Chaikovskyi above · Vitaliy Zharskiy below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 73 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Vitaliy Zharskiy at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Bohdan Chaikovskyi 27–50 Vitaliy Zharskiy Bohdan Chaikovskyi has won 27 of their 77 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:12What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Zharskiy
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-50 in 77
Zharskiy
Wrong
gap of 23 in 77, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chaikovskyi 1814 vs Zharskiy 1648
Chaikovskyi
Correct
both rated, 166 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chaikovskyi 60% vs Zharskiy 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chaikovskyi 60% vs Zharskiy 40%
Chaikovskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chaikovskyi -1 · Zharskiy +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Zharskiy)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chaikovskyi form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChaikovskyi 2.20 / Zharskiy 1.61
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Zharskiy)-3.7pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13185352
Chaikovskyi2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 144 of 324
Down 0–1, comes back27% 49 of 183
Down 0–2, comes back10% 10 of 104
Zharskiy1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite64% won 60 of 94
Up 2–0, closes it97% 33 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it85% 46 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChaikovskyi5wins
AwayZharskiy5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChaikovskyi50%2 of 4
AwayZharskiy50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chaikovskyi4Zharskiy6n = 10Zharskiy took 6 of 10
S2Chaikovskyi4Zharskiy6n = 10Zharskiy took 6 of 10
S3Chaikovskyi3Zharskiy7n = 10Zharskiy took 7 of 10
S4Chaikovskyi5Zharskiy2n = 7Chaikovskyi took 5 of 7
S5Chaikovskyi3Zharskiy2n = 5Chaikovskyi took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricChaikovskyiZharskiyC − ZBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.840.0−3.2per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChaikovskyiZharskiyBasisWin rate · lifetime412 / 792 vs 277 / 55952%49.6%412 / 792 vs 277 / 559Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.236.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZharskiyChaikovskyi 2.20/Zharskiy 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Zharskiy · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Chaikovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 24 · 10:35B. Chaikovskyi3841211113V. Zharskiy351110681
LSep 23 · 12:05B. Chaikovskyi45111114182V. Zharskiy53691611113
LSep 23 · 24:00B. Chaikovskyi2310670V. Zharskiy341211113
LSep 10 · 07:05B. Chaikovskyi166460V. Zharskiy331111113
WSep 9 · 13:35B. Chaikovskyi50911811113V. Zharskiy4111711932
WSep 8 · 20:00B. Chaikovskyi50111195143V. Zharskiy47761111122
WSep 6 · 24:45B. Chaikovskyi43461111113V. Zharskiy3911117642
WJun 11 · 09:35B. Chaikovskyi3711411113V. Zharskiy37811991
LJun 10 · 13:35B. Chaikovskyi3911461172V. Zharskiy46911114113
LJun 9 · 20:00B. Chaikovskyi27710100V. Zharskiy351112123
B. Chaikovskyi10
LSep 24 · 09:05B. Chaikovskyi1.576570G. Kuzmenko2.251111113WSep 24 · 07:35B. Chaikovskyi1.911112113I. Sukovatyi1.8091090LSep 24 · 06:05B. Chaikovskyi1.5061211792A. Romanenko2.501110611113WSep 24 · 04:35B. Chaikovskyi1.5012611113O. Pohonov2.501011691WSep 23 · 18:35G. Kuzmenko2.1011730B. Chaikovskyi1.671311113WSep 23 · 17:35I. Sukovatyi1.837101191B. Chaikovskyi1.8311125113LSep 23 · 16:05O. Pohonov2.3811611113B. Chaikovskyi1.53911781WSep 23 · 14:05A. Romanenko2.508111251B. Chaikovskyi1.5011814113LSep 23 · 12:05V. Zharskiy1.57691611113B. Chaikovskyi2.25111114182WSep 23 · 02:30O. Pohonov2.381185101B. Chaikovskyi1.5361111123
V. Zharskiy10
WSep 24 · 09:35V. Zharskiy2.631111113I. Sukovatyi1.444870LSep 24 · 08:35V. Zharskiy1.61991191O. Pohonov2.2011117113LSep 24 · 07:05V. Zharskiy2.505111041G. Kuzmenko1.5011712113WSep 24 · 05:05V. Zharskiy2.6341111113A. Romanenko1.44117761WSep 23 · 18:05V. Zharskiy1.6111711113O. Pohonov2.20911561LSep 23 · 16:35V. Zharskiy2.386750G. Kuzmenko1.531111113LSep 23 · 15:05V. Zharskiy2.509860A. Romanenko1.501111113LSep 23 · 13:35V. Zharskiy2.5097200I. Sukovatyi1.501111223WSep 23 · 12:05V. Zharskiy1.57691611113B. Chaikovskyi2.25111114182LSep 23 · 02:00G. Kuzmenko1.50111111113V. Zharskiy2.50713791
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