TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Matyas Navedla vs Pavel Wawrosz 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
511114117811119
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:59 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timePavel Wawrosz to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMatyas Navedla above · Pavel Wawrosz below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 88 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Pavel Wawrosz at 54.1%
88 points played in total.
H2H Matyas Navedla 18–27 Pavel Wawrosz Matyas Navedla has won 18 of their 45 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:5954.1%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.8pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Wawrosz
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
18-27 in 45
Wawrosz
Wrong
gap of 9 in 45, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Navedla 1732 vs Wawrosz 1775
Wawrosz
Wrong
both rated, 43 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Navedla 40% vs Wawrosz 20%
Navedla
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Navedla 40% vs Wawrosz 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Navedla -2 · Wawrosz -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Wawrosz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wawrosz form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNavedla 2.00 / Wawrosz 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Wawrosz)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13254324
Navedla2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 134 of 321
Down 0–1, comes back26% 43 of 164
Down 0–2, comes back11% 9 of 79
Wawrosz1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite51% won 141 of 277
Up 2–0, closes it86% 51 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it71% 94 of 133
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNavedla5wins
AwayWawrosz5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNavedla100%4 of 4
AwayWawrosz83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Navedla4Wawrosz6n = 10Wawrosz took 6 of 10
S2Navedla7Wawrosz3n = 10Navedla took 7 of 10
S3Navedla7Wawrosz3n = 10Navedla took 7 of 10
S4Navedla3Wawrosz4n = 7Wawrosz took 4 of 7
S5Navedla1Wawrosz2n = 3Wawrosz took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNavedlaWawroszN − WBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.835.4+1.4per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNavedlaWawroszBasisWin rate · lifetime386 / 820 vs 240 / 47847.1%50.2%386 / 820 vs 240 / 478Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.739.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
WawroszNavedla 2.00/Wawrosz 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Wawrosz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Navedla won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 4 · 18:00M. Navedla4111811113P. Wawrosz31911651
WOct 2 · 12:30M. Navedla331111113P. Wawrosz227780
WSep 25 · 08:30M. Navedla331111113P. Wawrosz219840
LSep 23 · 12:59M. Navedla323111171P. Wawrosz4011135113
WSep 23 · 10:00M. Navedla331111113P. Wawrosz174760
LSep 19 · 20:30M. Navedla4581171182P. Wawrosz47118116113
LSep 16 · 20:00M. Navedla3661171112P. Wawrosz45119113113
LSep 13 · 17:02M. Navedla31741191P. Wawrosz3811115113
WSep 13 · 14:00M. Navedla514131112113P. Wawrosz49111151482
LSep 8 · 06:30M. Navedla33813481P. Wawrosz44111111113
M. Navedla10
LOct 7 · 10:00T. Dousek1.5771111113M. Navedla2.25118761LOct 6 · 17:30M. Grundel1.67111174113M. Navedla2.1077111182WOct 6 · 16:00M. Navedla2.001111113D. Ondryas1.739890WOct 6 · 15:30R. Urbaniec1.91814461M. Navedla1.80111211113LOct 6 · 14:00M. Navedla1.917960M. Grundel1.801111113LOct 4 · 21:30L. Prikasky2.2511811123M. Navedla1.588119101LOct 4 · 20:30M. Navedla1.50119111092L. Prikasky2.50811512113WOct 4 · 19:00M. Navedla2.25811126113M. Vavrecka1.57115101172WOct 4 · 18:00P. Wawrosz1.40911651M. Navedla2.7511811113LOct 2 · 12:59M. Navedla1.837680R. Polasek1.831111113
P. Wawrosz10
LOct 7 · 10:30P. Wawrosz1.83781171T. Zika1.8311117113WOct 4 · 21:00M. Vavrecka1.83103100P. Wawrosz1.831211123LOct 4 · 20:00P. Wawrosz1.91591191M. Vavrecka1.8011115113LOct 4 · 19:30L. Prikasky1.831311113P. Wawrosz1.8311690LOct 4 · 18:00P. Wawrosz1.40911651M. Navedla2.7511811113WOct 2 · 17:30M. Grundel2.059121141P. Wawrosz1.6811148113WOct 2 · 16:00M. Cabis1.731011611122P. Wawrosz2.00128116143WOct 2 · 15:00L. Prikasky1.8311881172P. Wawrosz1.83911118113LOct 2 · 14:30P. Wawrosz1.6711671172M. Grundel2.10611114113WOct 2 · 13:29O. Paril1.831111971P. Wawrosz1.8381311113
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