TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Julius Didi vs Lukas Malek 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
5111196111210811
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:27 and never touched: 70.7% is still 70.7%
Graded at full timeLukas Malek to win
70.7%
70.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJulius Didi above · Lukas Malek below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 94 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Lukas Malek at 70.7%
94 points played in total.
H2H Julius Didi 1–4 Lukas Malek Julius Didi has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:2770.7%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 0.7pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Malek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Malek
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Didi 1432 vs Malek 1475
Malek
Correct
both rated, 43 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Didi 40% vs Malek 60%
Malek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Didi 40% vs Malek 80%
Malek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Didi +1 · Malek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% · Strong (leans Malek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Malek form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDidi 2.75 / Malek 1.40
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Malek)-0.7pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13254230
Didi2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 91 of 205
Down 0–1, comes back20% 19 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 58
Malek1.40
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite66% won 36 of 55
Up 2–0, closes it87% 20 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it75% 30 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeDidi1wins
AwayMalek4wins
2 of 5 to a deciderMalek leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDidin = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayMalek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Didi1Malek4n = 5Malek took 4 of 5
S2Didi2Malek3n = 5Malek took 3 of 5
S3Didi2Malek3n = 5Malek took 3 of 5
S4Didi2Malek1n = 3Didi took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricDidiMalekD − MBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match33.437.6−4.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDidiMalekBasisWin rate · lifetime407 / 789 vs 190 / 38451.6%49.5%407 / 789 vs 190 / 384Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.936.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MalekDidi 2.75/Malek 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.7%
Malek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Malek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 22 · 12:00J. Didi2371240L. Malek361114113
LAug 15 · 13:00J. Didi4171151172L. Malek47118116113
LAug 15 · 12:30J. Didi4511911682L. Malek45411811113
LJul 23 · 10:00J. Didi183960L. Malek331111113
WJul 12 · 11:30J. Didi4071111113L. Malek27112681
J. Didi10
WOct 7 · 10:30M. Fisera1.91581281J. Didi1.80111110113LOct 7 · 08:58J. Didi1.8091111882J. Steffan1.91116711113WOct 7 · 08:30J. Steffan1.61119991J. Didi2.2031111113LOct 7 · 07:30J. Didi2.2011911772J. Jnr1.61911411113LOct 7 · 06:30T. Andrle1.67137115113J. Didi2.10111181162LOct 5 · 09:08J. Didi2.1086100T. Andrle1.671111123WOct 5 · 08:30J. Didi1.8391111133M. Smrcek1.831168111LOct 5 · 07:00J. Didi1.9110780J. Steffan1.801211113WOct 5 · 06:00T. Andrle1.8051181172J. Didi1.91117118113LOct 4 · 02:00J. Steffan1.8311117163J. Didi1.839911141
L. Malek10
LOct 7 · 12:00L. Malek1.677811111M. Fisera2.1011115133WOct 7 · 10:00L. Malek1.611111113T. Nohejl2.205690LOct 2 · 13:30M. Kolar1.8091111113L. Malek1.91118981WOct 2 · 12:30L. Malek1.731011711113M. Fisera2.0012511852WOct 2 · 11:00L. Malek3.751181012113V. Postelt1.25911121092LOct 2 · 10:00M. Kolar1.61111259113L. Malek2.20310111172WSep 28 · 13:28L. Malek1.5312811113A. Svoboda2.381011781WSep 28 · 12:00L. Malek1.531112113A. Svoboda2.3881050WSep 28 · 11:30V. Kosar2.20541591L. Malek1.61111113113WSep 28 · 10:00L. Malek1.8312117113J. Novotny1.831041161
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