TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Rostislav Niezgoda vs Dmytro Opanasiuk 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
6111210119115––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:55 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDmytro Opanasiuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRostislav Niezgoda above · Dmytro Opanasiuk below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 75 set 4, 11-5 · our read held Dmytro Opanasiuk at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Rostislav Niezgoda 1–1 Dmytro Opanasiuk Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:5554.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 6.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Opanasiuk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Niezgoda 1933 vs Opanasiuk 1891
Niezgoda
Correct
both rated, 43 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Niezgoda 80% vs Opanasiuk 60%
Niezgoda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Niezgoda 70% vs Opanasiuk 40%
Niezgoda
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Niezgoda +3 · Opanasiuk -1
Niezgoda
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Opanasiuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Niezgoda form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNiezgoda 2.10 / Opanasiuk 1.666
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Opanasiuk)-6.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13254193
Niezgoda2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Opanasiuk1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite52% won 100 of 191
Up 2–0, closes it93% 52 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it69% 68 of 99
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeNiezgoda1wins
AwayOpanasiuk1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricNiezgodaOpanasiukN − OBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match36.542.0−5.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNiezgodaOpanasiukBasisWin rate · lifetime27 / 42 vs 171 / 32164.3%53.3%27 / 42 vs 171 / 321Avg sets wonper match2.42.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.939.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
OpanasiukNiezgoda 2.10/Opanasiuk 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Opanasiuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Niezgoda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WOct 4 · 21:30R. Niezgoda551117411123D. Opanasiuk51519116102
LOct 4 · 20:30R. Niezgoda184950D. Opanasiuk331111113
R. Niezgoda10
WOct 7 · 19:30R. Revay3.006119121R. Niezgoda1.3611411143WOct 7 · 18:00R. Niezgoda1.30111147113O. Paril3.4088111172WOct 4 · 21:30D. Opanasiuk1.66519116102R. Niezgoda2.101117411123LOct 4 · 20:30R. Niezgoda1.734950D. Opanasiuk2.001111113WOct 4 · 19:00R. Niezgoda1.226111111113O. Paril4.0011137592WOct 4 · 18:00J. Dzida2.001111111192R. Niezgoda1.73138138113WOct 1 · 17:03R. Niezgoda1.8011511113J. Szotkowski1.91911351LOct 1 · 16:00R. Niezgoda1.8081261472J. Dzida1.9111101112113WOct 1 · 15:30J. Szotkowski2.005137151R. Niezgoda1.73111111173LOct 1 · 14:00R. Niezgoda1.8371090M. Biolek1.831112113
D. Opanasiuk10
LOct 7 · 19:00O. Paril2.75811118113D. Opanasiuk1.4011861192WOct 7 · 18:30D. Opanasiuk1.671111113R. Revay2.107870LOct 4 · 21:30D. Opanasiuk1.66519116102R. Niezgoda2.101117411123WOct 4 · 20:30R. Niezgoda1.734950D. Opanasiuk2.001111113WOct 4 · 19:30D. Opanasiuk1.801111113J. Dzida1.918870WOct 4 · 18:30O. Paril2.508750D. Opanasiuk1.501111113LOct 4 · 17:00M. Biolek1.83111187113D. Opanasiuk1.8367111172LOct 4 · 16:00D. Opanasiuk1.73116111892R. Revay2.00911820113LOct 4 · 15:30M. Biolek1.831111113D. Opanasiuk1.839470LOct 4 · 14:00D. Opanasiuk1.404670O. Paril2.751111113
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