TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Dmytro Opanasiuk vs Rostislav Niezgoda 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
51119171146111012
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:17 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDmytro Opanasiuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDmytro Opanasiuk above · Rostislav Niezgoda below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 19-17
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 106 set 5, 10-12 · our read held Dmytro Opanasiuk at 54.0%
106 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Opanasiuk 1–0 Rostislav Niezgoda Rostislav Niezgoda has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Opanasiuk beat Niezgoda 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:1754.0%Our read60.2%to break even at 1.66
short by 6.2pp60.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.66 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.66 (56%)
Opanasiuk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Opanasiuk 1898 vs Niezgoda 1906
Niezgoda
Correct
both rated, 7 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Opanasiuk 60% vs Niezgoda 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Opanasiuk 40% vs Niezgoda 70%
Niezgoda
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Opanasiuk +3 · Niezgoda -1
Opanasiuk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Opanasiuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Niezgoda form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOpanasiuk 1.66 / Niezgoda 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Opanasiuk)-6.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13245759
Opanasiuk1.66
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite53% won 98 of 186
Up 2–0, closes it93% 50 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it69% 66 of 96
Niezgoda2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeOpanasiuk1wins
AwayNiezgoda0wins
Opanasiuk leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricOpanasiukNiezgodaO − NBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match33.018.0+15.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOpanasiukNiezgodaBasisWin rate · lifetime170 / 318 vs 24 / 3953.5%61.5%170 / 318 vs 24 / 39Avg sets wonper match2.22.4per matchAvg pointsper match39.340.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
OpanasiukOpanasiuk 1.66/Niezgoda 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Opanasiuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Niezgoda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WOct 4 · 20:30D. Opanasiuk331111113R. Niezgoda184950
D. Opanasiuk10
WOct 4 · 20:30R. Niezgoda1.734950D. Opanasiuk2.001111113WOct 4 · 19:30D. Opanasiuk1.801111113J. Dzida1.918870WOct 4 · 18:30O. Paril2.508750D. Opanasiuk1.501111113LOct 4 · 17:00M. Biolek1.83111187113D. Opanasiuk1.8367111172LOct 4 · 16:00D. Opanasiuk1.73116111892R. Revay2.00911820113LOct 4 · 15:30M. Biolek1.831111113D. Opanasiuk1.839470LOct 4 · 14:00D. Opanasiuk1.404670O. Paril2.751111113LSep 30 · 21:30D. Opanasiuk1.65119117112T. Dousek2.10411611133WSep 30 · 20:30D. Opanasiuk1.4411611113T. Zika2.63611271LSep 30 · 19:00D. Opanasiuk1.6111561182T. Dousek2.20511118113
R. Niezgoda10
LOct 4 · 20:30R. Niezgoda1.734950D. Opanasiuk2.001111113WOct 4 · 19:00R. Niezgoda1.226111111113O. Paril4.0011137592WOct 4 · 18:00J. Dzida2.001111111192R. Niezgoda1.73138138113WOct 1 · 17:03R. Niezgoda1.8011511113J. Szotkowski1.91911351LOct 1 · 16:00R. Niezgoda1.8081261472J. Dzida1.9111101112113WOct 1 · 15:30J. Szotkowski2.005137151R. Niezgoda1.73111111173LOct 1 · 14:00R. Niezgoda1.8371090M. Biolek1.831112113WSep 29 · 17:30R. Niezgoda1.661211163T. Zika2.10105140WSep 29 · 16:00R. Niezgoda1.801111113M. Biolek1.918590WSep 29 · 15:30O. Paril4.0091090R. Niezgoda1.221112113
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