TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Milan Flesar vs Jan Kabelka 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1171614117––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:20 and never touched: 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeMilan Flesar to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Flesar above · Jan Kabelka below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 16-14
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 66 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Milan Flesar at 54.5%
66 points played in total.
H2H Milan Flesar 11–9 Jan Kabelka Jan Kabelka has won 9 of their 20 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:2054.5%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.4pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Flesar
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-9 in 20
Flesar
Correct
gap of 2 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Flesar 1503 vs Kabelka 1449
Flesar
Correct
both rated, 53 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Flesar 40% vs Kabelka 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Flesar 30% vs Kabelka 60%
Kabelka
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Flesar +1 · Kabelka +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Flesar) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Flesar form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFlesar 1.727 / Kabelka 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Flesar)-3.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13242825
Flesar1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 74 of 122
Up 2–0, closes it96% 49 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it78% 64 of 82
Kabelka2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Sep 29)
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 53 of 118
Down 0–1, comes back26% 17 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFlesar5wins
AwayKabelka5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFlesar83.3%5 of 6
AwayKabelka100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Flesar6Kabelka4n = 10Flesar took 6 of 10
S2Flesar5Kabelka5n = 10split evenly
S3Flesar5Kabelka5n = 10split evenly
S4Flesar6Kabelka3n = 9Flesar took 6 of 9
S5Flesar2Kabelka4n = 6Kabelka took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricFlesarKabelkaF − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match44.941.8+3.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFlesarKabelkaBasisWin rate · lifetime237 / 457 vs 144 / 29251.9%49.3%237 / 457 vs 144 / 292Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FlesarFlesar 1.73/Kabelka 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Flesar · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Flesar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 26 · 19:35M. Flesar35138861J. Kabelka44111111113
WAug 25 · 19:05M. Flesar341111123J. Kabelka1936100
LAug 14 · 15:35M. Flesar541411712102J. Kabelka551661110123
LAug 6 · 19:05M. Flesar4461111792J. Kabelka46114911113
WJul 23 · 21:50M. Flesar4013511113J. Kabelka361111861
WJul 23 · 18:35M. Flesar531113711113J. Kabelka4051511452
WJul 21 · 19:35M. Flesar49121511113J. Kabelka351017261
LJul 17 · 19:05M. Flesar4681171192J. Kabelka48118117113
WJul 16 · 20:05M. Flesar44114611123J. Kabelka50911119102
LJul 15 · 18:35M. Flesar501011111082J. Kabelka45122812113
M. Flesar10
WOct 4 · 19:35J. Martin1.50941171M. Flesar2.5011115113WOct 4 · 17:03J. Ruzicka1.33611111552M. Flesar3.251113613113LOct 4 · 16:35M. Flesar1.535780M. Chmelicek2.381111113LOct 4 · 15:05J. Ruzicka1.441111113M. Flesar2.638570LOct 4 · 14:35J. Lovl1.501211113M. Flesar2.5010830WOct 1 · 21:08M. Flesar2.20111157113D. Hons1.6167111152WOct 1 · 20:05M. Flesar2.2512711113D. Hons1.571011751LOct 1 · 19:05M. Flesar1.6711811882T. Motacek2.10711611113LOct 1 · 18:05M. Flesar2.108850L. Vosyka1.671111113LSep 28 · 17:35M. Flesar2.75915391R. Neterda1.40111311113
J. Kabelka10
WOct 4 · 19:05L. Vosyka1.3012681162J. Kabelka3.401011118113WSep 29 · 21:14J. Kabelka1.6161111113M. Cyrus2.20115791WSep 29 · 20:35J. Kabelka1.7311119113M. Cyrus2.00921131LSep 29 · 19:05J. Martin1.83127811123J. Kabelka1.831011117102LSep 29 · 18:35T. Krcil1.5311115113J. Kabelka2.38971141LSep 28 · 21:45L. Vosyka1.61111599113J. Kabelka2.20913111152WSep 28 · 20:05J. Kabelka1.731111113M. Chmelicek2.006670LSep 28 · 19:05J. Kabelka2.10119591L. Vosyka1.6771111113WSep 28 · 18:05J. Kabelka1.501111113R. Hruby2.507450WSep 25 · 21:39J. Kabelka2.25111197113R. Vavricka1.5789111172
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