TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Sebastian Kasnik vs Jiri Louda 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7117111181210911
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:21 and never touched: 58.3% is still 58.3%
Graded at full timeJiri Louda to win
58.3%
58.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingSebastian Kasnik above · Jiri Louda below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 97 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Jiri Louda at 58.3%
97 points played in total.
H2H Sebastian Kasnik 29–50 Jiri Louda Sebastian Kasnik has won 29 of their 79 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Louda beat Kasnik 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:2158.3%Our read62.5%to break even at 1.60
short by 4.2pp62.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.60 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (58%)
Louda
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
29-50 in 79
Louda
Correct
gap of 21 in 79, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kasnik 1571 vs Louda 1597
Louda
Correct
both rated, 27 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kasnik 80% vs Louda 60%
Kasnik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kasnik 40% vs Louda 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kasnik +2 · Louda +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Louda) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kasnik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKasnik 2.20 / Louda 1.60
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Louda)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13229974
Kasnik2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog39% won 120 of 305
Down 0–1, comes back18% 29 of 160
Down 0–2, comes back9% 9 of 96
Louda1.60
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 178 of 327
Up 2–0, closes it87% 81 of 93
Up 1–0, closes it72% 133 of 185
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKasnik5wins
AwayLouda5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKasnik100%3 of 3
AwayLouda71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kasnik3Louda7n = 10Louda took 7 of 10
S2Kasnik2Louda8n = 10Louda took 8 of 10
S3Kasnik6Louda4n = 10Kasnik took 6 of 10
S4Kasnik5Louda1n = 6Kasnik took 5 of 6
S5Kasnik2Louda1n = 3Kasnik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKasnikLoudaK − LBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match32.936.1−3.2per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKasnikLoudaBasisWin rate · lifetime471 / 1007 vs 613 / 120146.8%51%471 / 1007 vs 613 / 1201Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LoudaKasnik 2.20/Louda 1.60
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.3%
Louda · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Louda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 1 · 18:00S. Kasnik3734111182J. Louda47111168113
WSep 30 · 14:00S. Kasnik4111811113J. Louda26411741
LSep 29 · 20:58S. Kasnik2711790J. Louda351311113
LSep 29 · 18:00S. Kasnik25105100J. Louda351211123
WSep 24 · 19:30S. Kasnik331111113J. Louda259880
LSep 22 · 08:30S. Kasnik27651151J. Louda3711114113
LSep 13 · 02:30S. Kasnik165650J. Louda331111113
WSep 10 · 23:00S. Kasnik46841211113J. Louda50111110992
WSep 4 · 06:00S. Kasnik41115311113J. Louda4381111762
WSep 1 · 14:00S. Kasnik3631111113J. Louda30115681
S. Kasnik10
WOct 1 · 20:00S. Kasnik2.50931112113M. Pikous1.50111181092WOct 1 · 19:30M. Sychra1.6761290S. Kasnik2.101114113LOct 1 · 18:00S. Kasnik2.2534111182J. Louda1.57111168113WOct 1 · 03:00J. Tazler1.7311115782S. Kasnik2.00991111113WOct 1 · 02:00S. Kasnik1.611311113M. Regner2.2011480LOct 1 · 01:00S. Kasnik1.83491141J. Tazler1.8311119113LOct 1 · 00:00M. Skakal1.441312113S. Kasnik2.63111040LSep 30 · 22:30M. Wagner1.57111199123S. Kasnik2.25521111102LSep 30 · 17:00A. Brazda1.101116113S. Kasnik5.3071490LSep 30 · 16:00S. Kasnik2.256870A. Brazda1.571111113
J. Louda10
WOct 1 · 20:30J. Louda1.611110118113M. Sychra2.2091231172LOct 1 · 19:00J. Louda1.83111091172M. Pikous1.83712116113WOct 1 · 18:00S. Kasnik2.2534111182J. Louda1.57111168113LSep 30 · 17:30M. Pikous1.8311911123J. Louda1.836119101WSep 30 · 16:30J. Louda1.83711118113M. Pikous1.8311951152WSep 30 · 15:00J. Louda1.501281111113A. Brazda2.5014110462LSep 30 · 14:00S. Kasnik2.2011811113J. Louda1.61411741WSep 29 · 20:58J. Louda1.611311113S. Kasnik2.2011790LSep 29 · 20:30J. Louda1.80118451P. Saleny1.9161111113LSep 29 · 19:00J. Louda2.006111261M. Wagner1.73111310113
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