TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Rafal Skotniczny vs Krzysztof Schaniel 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111151181311––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:17 and never touched: 69.5% is still 69.5%
Graded at full timeRafal Skotniczny to win
69.5%
69.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingRafal Skotniczny above · Krzysztof Schaniel below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 79 set 4, 13-11 · our read held Rafal Skotniczny at 69.5%
79 points played in total.
H2H Rafal Skotniczny 26–17 Krzysztof Schaniel Krzysztof Schaniel has won 17 of their 43 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Skotniczny beat Schaniel 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:1769.5%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 1.9pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Skotniczny
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
26-17 in 43
Skotniczny
Correct
gap of 9 in 43, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skotniczny 1502 vs Schaniel 1301
Skotniczny
Correct
both rated, 201 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skotniczny 40% vs Schaniel 60%
Schaniel
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skotniczny 70% vs Schaniel 50%
Skotniczny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skotniczny -3 · Schaniel +1
Skotniczny
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Clear lean (leans Skotniczny) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Schaniel form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkotniczny 1.40 / Schaniel 2.75
Signal prob.70% / 31%
Edge (Skotniczny)-1.9pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13227666
Skotniczny1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 210 of 329
Up 2–0, closes it96% 110 of 115
Up 1–0, closes it82% 161 of 197
Schaniel2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 179 of 423
Down 0–1, comes back29% 66 of 227
Down 0–2, comes back11% 14 of 123
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkotniczny5wins
AwaySchaniel5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkotniczny66.7%4 of 6
AwaySchaniel75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skotniczny6Schaniel4n = 10Skotniczny took 6 of 10
S2Skotniczny8Schaniel2n = 10Skotniczny took 8 of 10
S3Skotniczny4Schaniel6n = 10Schaniel took 6 of 10
S4Skotniczny5Schaniel2n = 7Skotniczny took 5 of 7
S5Skotniczny0Schaniel4n = 4Schaniel took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkotnicznySchanielSkotniczny − SchanielBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.938.6+2.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkotnicznySchanielBasisWin rate · lifetime617 / 1043 vs 857 / 173159.2%49.5%617 / 1043 vs 857 / 1731Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.739.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SkotnicznySkotniczny 1.40/Schaniel 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.5%
Skotniczny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Skotniczny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 2 · 08:10R. Skotniczny351311113K. Schaniel2711790
LAug 6 · 12:45R. Skotniczny4611127882K. Schaniel507101111113
LAug 6 · 10:20R. Skotniczny4711971192K. Schaniel49811118113
WJun 24 · 15:05R. Skotniczny4111118113K. Schaniel32391191
LJun 24 · 09:05R. Skotniczny58811111992K. Schaniel60119821113
WApr 17 · 14:20R. Skotniczny331111113K. Schaniel238780
WMar 12 · 15:20R. Skotniczny3961111113K. Schaniel29117291
LFeb 27 · 15:20R. Skotniczny4241181182K. Schaniel50119118113
WFeb 27 · 07:20R. Skotniczny4211119113K. Schaniel31661181
LFeb 19 · 14:30R. Skotniczny2611960K. Schaniel351311113
R. Skotniczny10
LOct 2 · 12:40O. Jadach2.10881111113R. Skotniczny1.6711117582LOct 2 · 11:50M. Cesarz4.331611143R. Skotniczny1.20149120LOct 2 · 11:00R. Skotniczny1.73101113121W. Urban2.0012715143WOct 2 · 09:50R. Skotniczny1.7311411113P. Adamus2.00811761WOct 2 · 08:10R. Skotniczny1.571311113K. Schaniel2.2511790WOct 2 · 06:30O. Jadach2.10118861R. Skotniczny1.6771111113WOct 2 · 05:40P. Adamus2.00931181R. Skotniczny1.7311119113WOct 2 · 04:55R. Skotniczny1.731171012113W. Urban2.00911121092WOct 2 · 03:50R. Skotniczny1.22811413123M. Cesarz4.001181111102WOct 1 · 16:40R. Skotniczny1.3718911113J. Kaczmarek2.751611821
K. Schaniel10
WOct 2 · 13:30W. Urban1.83611791K. Schaniel1.8311811113LOct 2 · 11:25O. Jadach1.571115113K. Schaniel2.2591360WOct 2 · 10:35P. Adamus1.5011123692K. Schaniel2.509101111113WOct 2 · 09:00M. Cesarz3.006141261K. Schaniel1.36111214113LOct 2 · 08:10R. Skotniczny1.571311113K. Schaniel2.2511790LOct 2 · 07:20W. Urban1.8312119123K. Schaniel1.8310811101WOct 2 · 05:15O. Jadach1.505111191K. Schaniel2.5011139113LOct 2 · 04:30M. Cesarz3.40101111113K. Schaniel1.30127791WOct 2 · 03:00P. Adamus1.531111861K. Schaniel2.3813811113LSep 30 · 16:20K. Schaniel1.93461151R. Gajda1.7811118113
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