TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Denys Shcherbak vs Dmytro Zeniuk 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811611115811––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:57 and never touched: 67.3% is still 67.3%
Graded at full timeDmytro Zeniuk to win
67.3%
67.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDenys Shcherbak above · Dmytro Zeniuk below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 71 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Dmytro Zeniuk at 67.3%
71 points played in total.
H2H Denys Shcherbak 11–9 Dmytro Zeniuk Dmytro Zeniuk has won 9 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:5767.3%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 2.0pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Zeniuk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-9 in 20
Shcherbak
Wrong
gap of 2 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shcherbak 1789 vs Zeniuk 2015
Zeniuk
Correct
both rated, 226 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shcherbak 40% vs Zeniuk 80%
Zeniuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shcherbak 60% vs Zeniuk 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Shcherbak +2 · Zeniuk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% · Clear lean (leans Zeniuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zeniuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShcherbak 2.625 / Zeniuk 1.444
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Zeniuk)-2.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223948
Shcherbak2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 97 of 225
Down 0–1, comes back16% 21 of 131
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 82
Zeniuk1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 93 of 153
Up 2–0, closes it89% 49 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it83% 73 of 88
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShcherbak4wins
AwayZeniuk6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderZeniuk leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShcherbak80%4 of 5
AwayZeniuk100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shcherbak5Zeniuk5n = 10split evenly
S2Shcherbak4Zeniuk6n = 10Zeniuk took 6 of 10
S3Shcherbak5Zeniuk5n = 10split evenly
S4Shcherbak4Zeniuk3n = 7Shcherbak took 4 of 7
S5Shcherbak1Zeniuk3n = 4Zeniuk took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricShcherbakZeniukS − ZBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.737.7−3.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShcherbakZeniukBasisWin rate · lifetime363 / 699 vs 349 / 70551.9%49.5%363 / 699 vs 349 / 705Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.137.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZeniukShcherbak 2.63/Zeniuk 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.3%
Zeniuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Zeniuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 17 · 01:30D. Shcherbak521111118113D. Zeniuk4451391162
WAug 11 · 04:35D. Shcherbak3911116113D. Zeniuk31881141
LAug 10 · 12:05D. Shcherbak4111481172D. Zeniuk42311116113
LAug 3 · 11:55D. Shcherbak3538111212D. Zeniuk481111510113
LJul 30 · 20:00D. Shcherbak176380D. Zeniuk331111113
LJul 27 · 18:35D. Shcherbak206590D. Zeniuk331111113
LJul 25 · 11:05D. Shcherbak4591112762D. Zeniuk491161011113
WJul 23 · 21:30D. Shcherbak351113113D. Zeniuk2371150
LJul 14 · 08:35D. Shcherbak24281131D. Zeniuk4111118113
WJul 13 · 12:05D. Shcherbak3911116113D. Zeniuk33771181
D. Shcherbak10
WOct 2 · 01:00I. Kozachuk1.8071150D. Shcherbak1.911113113WOct 1 · 23:00S. Rak1.674111291D. Shcherbak2.1011814113LOct 1 · 22:00D. Shcherbak1.731211871N. Kovalchuk2.0014811113LOct 1 · 21:00D. Pesternikov1.3611117113D. Shcherbak3.00871141LSep 29 · 10:35D. Shcherbak1.8391030I. Kozachuk1.831112113WSep 29 · 09:05D. Shcherbak1.2216116113O. Napirko4.001451171WSep 29 · 07:35D. Shcherbak1.4411114113R. Lazebnyi2.63861191WSep 29 · 06:05D. Shcherbak1.831111113D. Neborak1.837850WSep 29 · 04:35D. Shcherbak1.571111123I. Romaniak2.2559100LSep 28 · 18:35S. Rak1.6111711113D. Shcherbak2.20311371
D. Zeniuk10
WOct 2 · 01:30D. Zeniuk1.301311113N. Kovalchuk3.4011590WOct 1 · 23:30D. Pesternikov2.38413971D. Zeniuk1.53111111113LOct 1 · 21:30S. Rak2.75811911113D. Zeniuk1.4011711782WOct 1 · 20:30I. Kozachuk3.001177121D. Zeniuk1.3651111143WSep 29 · 09:23N. Danyliuk1.2891111852D. Zeniuk3.50114511113WSep 29 · 07:55B. Kohut1.8051111892D. Zeniuk1.91119811113LSep 29 · 06:55D. Zeniuk3.40891171N. Danyliuk1.3011114113WSep 29 · 05:55A. Molochko1.836911101D. Zeniuk1.8311111123WSep 29 · 04:55D. Zeniuk2.001211123V. Verbyany1.73107100LSep 28 · 15:55V. Verbyany1.801111133D. Zeniuk1.9147110
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