TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Yaroslav Stepanchuk vs Serhii Khandetskyi 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 7
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811116611611––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:28 and never touched: 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Stepanchuk to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingYaroslav Stepanchuk above · Serhii Khandetskyi below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 70 set 4, 6-11 · our read held Yaroslav Stepanchuk at 60.1%
70 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Stepanchuk 49–33 Serhii Khandetskyi Serhii Khandetskyi has won 33 of their 82 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:2860.1%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 3.6pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Stepanchuk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
49-33 in 82
Stepanchuk
Wrong
gap of 16 in 82, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stepanchuk 1577 vs Khandetskyi 1519
Stepanchuk
Wrong
both rated, 58 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stepanchuk 100% vs Khandetskyi 40%
Stepanchuk
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stepanchuk 90% vs Khandetskyi 40%
Stepanchuk
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stepanchuk +7 · Khandetskyi +2
Stepanchuk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Stepanchuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stepanchuk form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStepanchuk 1.571 / Khandetskyi 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Stepanchuk)-3.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223784
Stepanchuk1.57
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 7
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite52% won 84 of 162
Up 2–0, closes it89% 41 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it67% 54 of 81
Khandetskyi2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog48% won 73 of 153
Down 0–1, comes back21% 16 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStepanchuk7wins
AwayKhandetskyi3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderStepanchuk leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStepanchuk100%4 of 4
AwayKhandetskyi50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stepanchuk4Khandetskyi6n = 10Khandetskyi took 6 of 10
S2Stepanchuk6Khandetskyi4n = 10Stepanchuk took 6 of 10
S3Stepanchuk8Khandetskyi2n = 10Stepanchuk took 8 of 10
S4Stepanchuk4Khandetskyi3n = 7Stepanchuk took 4 of 7
S5Stepanchuk2Khandetskyi1n = 3Stepanchuk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStepanchukKhandetskyiS − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.633.9+5.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStepanchukKhandetskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime304 / 622 vs 398 / 80148.9%49.7%304 / 622 vs 398 / 801Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.836.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StepanchukStepanchuk 1.57/Khandetskyi 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.1%
Stepanchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Khandetskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 01:05Y. Stepanchuk4181111113S. Khandetskyi28112871
WSep 27 · 21:35Y. Stepanchuk331111113S. Khandetskyi155640
LSep 24 · 03:25Y. Stepanchuk4597111262S. Khandetskyi481111510113
WSep 21 · 23:05Y. Stepanchuk331111113S. Khandetskyi217860
WSep 1 · 23:35Y. Stepanchuk49129116113S. Khandetskyi41101161132
WAug 25 · 15:25Y. Stepanchuk4051311113S. Khandetskyi371111961
WAug 18 · 16:55Y. Stepanchuk541011148113S. Khandetskyi43126121122
LAug 11 · 22:05Y. Stepanchuk2376100S. Khandetskyi341111123
LJul 29 · 16:25Y. Stepanchuk353913101S. Khandetskyi45111111123
WJul 14 · 23:35Y. Stepanchuk43111110113S. Khandetskyi27741241
Y. Stepanchuk10
WOct 2 · 01:35M. Polysynskyi1.80611751Y. Stepanchuk1.9111711113WOct 2 · 00:35Y. Stepanchuk1.571291611113M. Fomin2.25141114942WOct 1 · 23:35Y. Sokoltsov2.2011116992Y. Stepanchuk1.61571111113WOct 1 · 22:05Y. Stepanchuk1.91117711123D. Kim1.80811118102WSep 30 · 03:05Y. Sokoltsov2.0011111552Y. Stepanchuk1.73711211113WSep 30 · 02:05Y. Stepanchuk1.83131213113H. Kulishov1.8315101181WSep 30 · 01:05Y. Stepanchuk1.6181111113S. Khandetskyi2.20112871LSep 29 · 23:35Y. Stepanchuk2.63811101192S. Pitsyk1.44117122113WSep 29 · 21:35Y. Stepanchuk1.831211113D. Kim1.8310850WSep 28 · 03:05Y. Sokoltsov2.0011117852Y. Stepanchuk1.73871111113
S. Khandetskyi10
WOct 2 · 02:35M. Fomin1.8049140S. Khandetskyi1.911111163WOct 2 · 01:05Y. Sokoltsov1.916780S. Khandetskyi1.801111113LOct 1 · 23:05D. Kim1.671312113S. Khandetskyi2.10111040LOct 1 · 21:05M. Polysynskyi1.731315118123S. Khandetskyi2.001117311102LSep 30 · 03:35S. Pitsyk2.001111113S. Khandetskyi1.739910WSep 30 · 02:35D. Kim1.57111771S. Khandetskyi2.2511511113LSep 30 · 01:05Y. Stepanchuk1.6181111113S. Khandetskyi2.20112871LSep 29 · 23:05H. Kulishov1.831111113S. Khandetskyi1.834740LSep 29 · 21:05Y. Sokoltsov2.001411133S. Khandetskyi1.73125110WSep 28 · 20:25S. Khandetskyi1.4011112113A. Peretiatko2.75951191
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