TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Yevhenii Sokoltsov vs Yaroslav Stepanchuk 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117111112511511
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:55 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Stepanchuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingYevhenii Sokoltsov above · Yaroslav Stepanchuk below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 1-11
Set 3 · 11-2
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 75 set 5, 5-11 · our read held Yaroslav Stepanchuk at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Yevhenii Sokoltsov 12–14 Yaroslav Stepanchuk Yevhenii Sokoltsov has won 12 of their 26 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:55What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Stepanchuk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-14 in 26
Stepanchuk
Correct
gap of 2 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sokoltsov 1508 vs Stepanchuk 1536
Stepanchuk
Correct
both rated, 28 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sokoltsov 80% vs Stepanchuk 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sokoltsov 50% vs Stepanchuk 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sokoltsov -1 · Stepanchuk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Stepanchuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stepanchuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSokoltsov 2.00 / Stepanchuk 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Stepanchuk)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13213593
Sokoltsov2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 54 of 143
Down 0–1, comes back15% 12 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 46
Stepanchuk1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite51% won 82 of 160
Up 2–0, closes it89% 41 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it67% 54 of 81
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSokoltsov5wins
AwayStepanchuk5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSokoltsov75%3 of 4
AwayStepanchuk66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sokoltsov4Stepanchuk6n = 10Stepanchuk took 6 of 10
S2Sokoltsov7Stepanchuk3n = 10Sokoltsov took 7 of 10
S3Sokoltsov1Stepanchuk9n = 10Stepanchuk took 9 of 10
S4Sokoltsov4Stepanchuk3n = 7Sokoltsov took 4 of 7
S5Sokoltsov2Stepanchuk1n = 3Sokoltsov took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSokoltsovStepanchukSokoltsov − StepanchukBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.939.6−4.7per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSokoltsovStepanchukBasisWin rate · lifetime272 / 556 vs 299 / 61848.9%48.4%272 / 556 vs 299 / 618Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StepanchukSokoltsov 2.00/Stepanchuk 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Stepanchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Stepanchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 28 · 03:05Y. Sokoltsov4211117852Y. Stepanchuk48871111113
LSep 22 · 01:05Y. Sokoltsov178630Y. Stepanchuk331111113
LSep 18 · 03:05Y. Sokoltsov23611421Y. Stepanchuk3911611113
WSep 10 · 01:35Y. Sokoltsov45912211113Y. Stepanchuk48111011792
WAug 27 · 01:05Y. Sokoltsov551111910143Y. Stepanchuk51791112122
WAug 18 · 14:55Y. Sokoltsov3851111113Y. Stepanchuk30117841
LAug 17 · 03:05Y. Sokoltsov2212550Y. Stepanchuk361411113
LJul 24 · 02:35Y. Sokoltsov219930Y. Stepanchuk331111113
WJun 26 · 03:05Y. Sokoltsov4611168113Y. Stepanchuk429141181
WJun 23 · 18:55Y. Sokoltsov4011117113Y. Stepanchuk36971191
Y. Sokoltsov10
LSep 30 · 01:35Y. Sokoltsov1.839880S. Pitsyk1.831111113WSep 30 · 00:05Y. Sokoltsov2.7515914113H. Kulishov1.4013111281WSep 29 · 22:35Y. Sokoltsov1.8311711113D. Kim1.83511981WSep 29 · 21:05Y. Sokoltsov2.001411133S. Khandetskyi1.73125110WSep 28 · 19:25Y. Sokoltsov1.361211810113D. Rehotun3.00108111272LSep 28 · 17:55Y. Sokoltsov2.006811161V. Kobets1.7311117183LSep 28 · 16:25Y. Sokoltsov1.91911391S. Khandetskyi1.8011911113WSep 28 · 14:55Y. Sokoltsov1.571111113A. Peretiatko2.255780LSep 28 · 13:25Y. Sokoltsov3.50412111172K. Hrynenko1.281110133113LSep 28 · 03:05Y. Sokoltsov2.0011117852Y. Stepanchuk1.73871111113
Y. Stepanchuk10
WSep 30 · 02:05Y. Stepanchuk1.83131213113H. Kulishov1.8315101181WSep 30 · 01:05Y. Stepanchuk1.6181111113S. Khandetskyi2.20112871LSep 29 · 23:35Y. Stepanchuk2.63811101192S. Pitsyk1.44117122113WSep 29 · 21:35Y. Stepanchuk1.831211113D. Kim1.8310850WSep 28 · 03:05Y. Sokoltsov2.0011117852Y. Stepanchuk1.73871111113LSep 28 · 02:05Y. Stepanchuk1.801281181H. Kulishov1.9114119113WSep 28 · 01:05Y. Stepanchuk1.83411911113A. Peretiatko1.8311511782LSep 27 · 23:35Y. Stepanchuk1.8381141342D. Kim1.831191111113WSep 27 · 21:35Y. Stepanchuk1.731111113S. Khandetskyi2.005640LSep 24 · 03:25S. Khandetskyi2.101111510113Y. Stepanchuk1.6797111262
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