TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Mykola Polysynskyi vs Serhii Khandetskyi 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
131115171138111210
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:56 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMykola Polysynskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMykola Polysynskyi above · Serhii Khandetskyi below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 15-17
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 111 set 5, 12-10 · our read held Mykola Polysynskyi at 54.0%
111 points played in total.
H2H Mykola Polysynskyi 80–85 Serhii Khandetskyi Mykola Polysynskyi has won 80 of their 165 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:5654.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Polysynskyi
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
80-85 in 165
Khandetskyi
Wrong
gap of 5 in 165, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Polysynskyi 1482 vs Khandetskyi 1523
Khandetskyi
Wrong
both rated, 41 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polysynskyi 60% vs Khandetskyi 20%
Polysynskyi
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polysynskyi 60% vs Khandetskyi 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Polysynskyi +3 · Khandetskyi -1
Polysynskyi
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Polysynskyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Khandetskyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolysynskyi 1.727 / Khandetskyi 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Polysynskyi)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223671
Polysynskyi1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 29)
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite48% won 61 of 128
Up 2–0, closes it88% 29 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it72% 44 of 61
Khandetskyi2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 30)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 73 of 153
Down 0–1, comes back21% 16 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePolysynskyi4wins
AwayKhandetskyi6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKhandetskyi leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePolysynskyi100%3 of 3
AwayKhandetskyi85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polysynskyi3Khandetskyi7n = 10Khandetskyi took 7 of 10
S2Polysynskyi7Khandetskyi3n = 10Polysynskyi took 7 of 10
S3Polysynskyi5Khandetskyi5n = 10split evenly
S4Polysynskyi3Khandetskyi5n = 8Khandetskyi took 5 of 8
S5Polysynskyi1Khandetskyi2n = 3Khandetskyi took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPolysynskyiKhandetskyiP − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.339.2+0.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolysynskyiKhandetskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime351 / 673 vs 401 / 80652.2%49.8%351 / 673 vs 401 / 806Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.836.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PolysynskyiPolysynskyi 1.73/Khandetskyi 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Polysynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Polysynskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 9 · 21:55M. Polysynskyi34513971S. Khandetskyi44111111113
LJun 17 · 00:05M. Polysynskyi26111140S. Khandetskyi371313113
WMay 18 · 16:25M. Polysynskyi351311113S. Khandetskyi2511590
LMay 15 · 00:35M. Polysynskyi36911791S. Khandetskyi4011711113
WMay 12 · 23:05M. Polysynskyi43111011113S. Khandetskyi33812941
WMay 11 · 19:55M. Polysynskyi511011118113S. Khandetskyi4312881142
LMay 8 · 00:35M. Polysynskyi4781111892S. Khandetskyi42115411113
WMay 7 · 00:05M. Polysynskyi4211119113S. Khandetskyi34971171
LMay 5 · 15:25M. Polysynskyi33911761S. Khandetskyi4211911113
LApr 30 · 02:35M. Polysynskyi4695131182S. Khandetskyi521111118113
M. Polysynskyi10
WSep 29 · 03:05D. Kim1.8071170M. Polysynskyi1.911113113WSep 29 · 02:05M. Polysynskyi1.611111113D. Us2.209950WSep 29 · 01:05M. Polysynskyi2.5091112113H. Kulishov1.501191071LSep 28 · 23:35M. Polysynskyi1.83141115192M. Fomin1.831671311113LSep 28 · 21:35M. Polysynskyi1.809560M. Skliar1.911111113WSep 21 · 03:05M. Polysynskyi1.91111134113A. Peretiatko1.8099111122LSep 21 · 01:35M. Polysynskyi1.504720M. Skliar2.501111113WSep 21 · 00:05M. Polysynskyi2.381111113H. Kulishov1.537870LSep 20 · 22:35M. Polysynskyi1.839940D. Kim1.831111113WSep 20 · 21:05M. Polysynskyi1.57811712113D. Us2.25119111092
S. Khandetskyi10
LSep 30 · 03:35S. Pitsyk2.001111113S. Khandetskyi1.739910WSep 30 · 02:35D. Kim1.57111771S. Khandetskyi2.2511511113LSep 30 · 01:05Y. Stepanchuk1.6181111113S. Khandetskyi2.20112871LSep 29 · 23:05H. Kulishov1.831111113S. Khandetskyi1.834740LSep 29 · 21:05Y. Sokoltsov2.001411133S. Khandetskyi1.73125110WSep 28 · 20:25S. Khandetskyi1.4011112113A. Peretiatko2.75951191WSep 28 · 18:25D. Rehotun2.20111110101S. Khandetskyi1.6113812123WSep 28 · 16:25Y. Sokoltsov1.91911391S. Khandetskyi1.8011911113WSep 28 · 15:25S. Khandetskyi2.501311113K. Hrynenko1.5011490LSep 28 · 14:25V. Kobets1.83137138113S. Khandetskyi1.831111111182
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