TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Yaroslav Stepanchuk vs Mykyta Fomin 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
12149111614119114
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 00:31 and never touched: 62.1% is still 62.1%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Stepanchuk to win
62.1%
62.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingYaroslav Stepanchuk above · Mykyta Fomin below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 16-14
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 111 set 5, 11-4 · our read held Yaroslav Stepanchuk at 62.1%
111 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Stepanchuk 12–9 Mykyta Fomin Mykyta Fomin has won 9 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 00:3162.1%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 1.6pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Stepanchuk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-9 in 21
Stepanchuk
Correct
gap of 3 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stepanchuk 1563 vs Fomin 1398
Stepanchuk
Correct
both rated, 165 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stepanchuk 100% vs Fomin 40%
Stepanchuk
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stepanchuk 80% vs Fomin 20%
Stepanchuk
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stepanchuk +5 · Fomin +1
Stepanchuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Clear lean (leans Stepanchuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stepanchuk form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStepanchuk 1.571 / Fomin 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Stepanchuk)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223924
Stepanchuk1.57
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite52% won 84 of 162
Up 2–0, closes it89% 41 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it67% 54 of 81
Fomin2.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 91 of 232
Down 0–1, comes back23% 28 of 122
Down 0–2, comes back11% 8 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStepanchuk6wins
AwayFomin4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStepanchuk leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStepanchuk75%3 of 4
AwayFomin50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stepanchuk4Fomin6n = 10Fomin took 6 of 10
S2Stepanchuk7Fomin3n = 10Stepanchuk took 7 of 10
S3Stepanchuk7Fomin3n = 10Stepanchuk took 7 of 10
S4Stepanchuk4Fomin4n = 8split evenly
S5Stepanchuk2Fomin2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStepanchukFominS − FBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.037.3+3.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStepanchukFominBasisWin rate · lifetime302 / 620 vs 291 / 60548.7%48.1%302 / 620 vs 291 / 605Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.836.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StepanchukStepanchuk 1.57/Fomin 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.1%
Stepanchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Stepanchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 18 · 01:05Y. Stepanchuk331111113M. Fomin167450
LSep 10 · 00:35Y. Stepanchuk42111141062M. Fomin43361112113
WAug 30 · 22:35Y. Stepanchuk4181111113M. Fomin33117961
LAug 19 · 18:25Y. Stepanchuk4891111982M. Fomin46117611113
LAug 13 · 23:35Y. Stepanchuk399911101M. Fomin4111117123
LAug 6 · 00:05Y. Stepanchuk389611121M. Fomin4311117143
WAug 4 · 00:35Y. Stepanchuk47811611113M. Fomin4411611792
WJul 31 · 03:33Y. Stepanchuk3512110123M. Fomin3810711101
WJul 17 · 01:35Y. Stepanchuk549111112113M. Fomin48111381062
WJul 15 · 01:05Y. Stepanchuk331111113M. Fomin218760
Y. Stepanchuk10
WOct 1 · 23:35Y. Sokoltsov2.2011116992Y. Stepanchuk1.61571111113WOct 1 · 22:05Y. Stepanchuk1.91117711123D. Kim1.80811118102WSep 30 · 03:05Y. Sokoltsov2.0011111552Y. Stepanchuk1.73711211113WSep 30 · 02:05Y. Stepanchuk1.83131213113H. Kulishov1.8315101181WSep 30 · 01:05Y. Stepanchuk1.6181111113S. Khandetskyi2.20112871LSep 29 · 23:35Y. Stepanchuk2.63811101192S. Pitsyk1.44117122113WSep 29 · 21:35Y. Stepanchuk1.831211113D. Kim1.8310850WSep 28 · 03:05Y. Sokoltsov2.0011117852Y. Stepanchuk1.73871111113LSep 28 · 02:05Y. Stepanchuk1.801281181H. Kulishov1.9114119113WSep 28 · 01:05Y. Stepanchuk1.83411911113A. Peretiatko1.8311511782
M. Fomin10
WOct 1 · 22:35M. Polysynskyi1.8371040M. Fomin1.831112113LOct 1 · 21:35Y. Sokoltsov1.4411117113M. Fomin2.63881181WSep 30 · 20:25M. Fomin2.10891111113M. Skliar1.6711117652LSep 30 · 18:25D. Rehotun2.00111111113M. Fomin1.73135771LSep 30 · 16:25D. Us2.201112113M. Fomin1.6191060LSep 30 · 15:25M. Fomin1.91271241A. Peretiatko1.80111110113LSep 30 · 14:25P. Ishchyk1.8011711113M. Fomin1.91711681LSep 29 · 03:35M. Fomin1.73411541H. Kulishov2.0011911113LSep 29 · 01:35D. Kim1.6111116113M. Fomin2.20531191LSep 29 · 00:35M. Fomin2.1011911972M. Skliar1.67411411113
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