TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Mykyta Fomin vs Serhii Khandetskyi 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
4119111416––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:26 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Khandetskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMykyta Fomin above · Serhii Khandetskyi below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 14-16
Point 65 set 3, 14-16 · our read held Serhii Khandetskyi at 54.0%
65 points played in total.
H2H Mykyta Fomin 3–0 Serhii Khandetskyi Serhii Khandetskyi has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:2654.0%Our read52.4%to break even at 1.909
clears by 1.6pp52.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.909 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Fomin
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Fomin
Wrong
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fomin 1392 vs Khandetskyi 1510
Khandetskyi
Correct
both rated, 118 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fomin 40% vs Khandetskyi 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fomin 20% vs Khandetskyi 40%
Khandetskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fomin -1 · Khandetskyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Khandetskyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Khandetskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFomin 1.80 / Khandetskyi 1.909
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Khandetskyi)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13224030
Fomin1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite46% won 37 of 80
Up 2–0, closes it73% 16 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it57% 25 of 44
Khandetskyi1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog48% won 73 of 153
Down 0–1, comes back21% 16 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeFomin3wins
AwayKhandetskyi0wins
1 of 3 to a deciderFomin leads 3–0, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFomin100%3 of 3
AwayKhandetskyin = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fomin3Khandetskyi0n = 3Fomin took 3 of 3
S2Fomin2Khandetskyi1n = 3Fomin took 2 of 3
S3Fomin1Khandetskyi2n = 3Khandetskyi took 2 of 3
S4Fomin2Khandetskyi1n = 3Fomin took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home267%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricFominKhandetskyiF − KBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set30+3of 3Avg pointsper match44.735.7+9.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFominKhandetskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime291 / 606 vs 397 / 80148%49.6%291 / 606 vs 397 / 801Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KhandetskyiFomin 1.80/Khandetskyi 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Khandetskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Khandetskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WJul 14 · 21:35M. Fomin4211119113S. Khandetskyi27361171
WJul 3 · 02:55M. Fomin511171110123S. Khandetskyi48711812102
WJun 30 · 15:25M. Fomin4111118113S. Khandetskyi32861171
M. Fomin10
LOct 2 · 00:35Y. Stepanchuk1.571291611113M. Fomin2.25141114942WOct 1 · 22:35M. Polysynskyi1.8371040M. Fomin1.831112113LOct 1 · 21:35Y. Sokoltsov1.4411117113M. Fomin2.63881181WSep 30 · 20:25M. Fomin2.10891111113M. Skliar1.6711117652LSep 30 · 18:25D. Rehotun2.00111111113M. Fomin1.73135771LSep 30 · 16:25D. Us2.201112113M. Fomin1.6191060LSep 30 · 15:25M. Fomin1.91271241A. Peretiatko1.80111110113LSep 30 · 14:25P. Ishchyk1.8011711113M. Fomin1.91711681LSep 29 · 03:35M. Fomin1.73411541H. Kulishov2.0011911113LSep 29 · 01:35D. Kim1.6111116113M. Fomin2.20531191
S. Khandetskyi10
WOct 2 · 01:05Y. Sokoltsov1.916780S. Khandetskyi1.801111113LOct 1 · 23:05D. Kim1.671312113S. Khandetskyi2.10111040LOct 1 · 21:05M. Polysynskyi1.731315118123S. Khandetskyi2.001117311102LSep 30 · 03:35S. Pitsyk2.001111113S. Khandetskyi1.739910WSep 30 · 02:35D. Kim1.57111771S. Khandetskyi2.2511511113LSep 30 · 01:05Y. Stepanchuk1.6181111113S. Khandetskyi2.20112871LSep 29 · 23:05H. Kulishov1.831111113S. Khandetskyi1.834740LSep 29 · 21:05Y. Sokoltsov2.001411133S. Khandetskyi1.73125110WSep 28 · 20:25S. Khandetskyi1.4011112113A. Peretiatko2.75951191WSep 28 · 18:25D. Rehotun2.20111110101S. Khandetskyi1.6113812123
Upcoming Matches
M. Fomin
S. Khandetskyi
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