TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Mykola Polysynskyi vs Yevhenii Sokoltsov 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
71113151412611––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:02 and never touched: 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeMykola Polysynskyi to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMykola Polysynskyi above · Yevhenii Sokoltsov below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 89 set 4, 6-11 · our read held Mykola Polysynskyi at 59.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Mykola Polysynskyi 35–18 Yevhenii Sokoltsov Yevhenii Sokoltsov has won 18 of their 53 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:0259.0%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 2.9pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Polysynskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
35-18 in 53
Polysynskyi
Wrong
gap of 17 in 53, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Polysynskyi 1456 vs Sokoltsov 1472
Sokoltsov
Correct
both rated, 16 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polysynskyi 40% vs Sokoltsov 20%
Polysynskyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polysynskyi 50% vs Sokoltsov 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Polysynskyi -3 · Sokoltsov -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Polysynskyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sokoltsov form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolysynskyi 1.615 / Sokoltsov 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Polysynskyi)-2.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223550
Polysynskyi1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite48% won 61 of 128
Up 2–0, closes it88% 29 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it72% 44 of 61
Sokoltsov2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog38% won 55 of 144
Down 0–1, comes back15% 12 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePolysynskyi6wins
AwaySokoltsov4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderPolysynskyi leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePolysynskyi80%4 of 5
AwaySokoltsov60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polysynskyi5Sokoltsov5n = 10split evenly
S2Polysynskyi5Sokoltsov5n = 10split evenly
S3Polysynskyi6Sokoltsov4n = 10Polysynskyi took 6 of 10
S4Polysynskyi3Sokoltsov4n = 7Sokoltsov took 4 of 7
S5Polysynskyi4Sokoltsov2n = 6Polysynskyi took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPolysynskyiSokoltsovP − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.638.8−0.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolysynskyiSokoltsovBasisWin rate · lifetime348 / 668 vs 271 / 55952.1%48.5%348 / 668 vs 271 / 559Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PolysynskyiPolysynskyi 1.61/Sokoltsov 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59%
Polysynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sokoltsov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 01:35M. Polysynskyi47119511113Y. Sokoltsov4091111182
WSep 8 · 03:05M. Polysynskyi371412113Y. Sokoltsov28121060
LAug 27 · 03:05M. Polysynskyi49114139122Y. Sokoltsov536111111143
WAug 21 · 03:05M. Polysynskyi47911115113Y. Sokoltsov4511681192
LAug 2 · 23:35M. Polysynskyi4459111182Y. Sokoltsov49111197113
LJul 15 · 21:05M. Polysynskyi26311661Y. Sokoltsov4011711113
WJul 9 · 23:55M. Polysynskyi44111147113Y. Sokoltsov4298111132
LJun 22 · 01:05M. Polysynskyi145630Y. Sokoltsov331111113
WMay 12 · 22:05M. Polysynskyi331111113Y. Sokoltsov239680
WMay 7 · 02:05M. Polysynskyi45751111113Y. Sokoltsov3511116432
M. Polysynskyi10
LOct 2 · 01:35M. Polysynskyi1.80611751Y. Stepanchuk1.9111711113LOct 2 · 00:05M. Polysynskyi2.00871131D. Kim1.7311118113LOct 1 · 22:35M. Polysynskyi1.8371040M. Fomin1.831112113WOct 1 · 21:05M. Polysynskyi1.731315118123S. Khandetskyi2.001117311102WSep 29 · 03:05D. Kim1.8071170M. Polysynskyi1.911113113WSep 29 · 02:05M. Polysynskyi1.611111113D. Us2.209950WSep 29 · 01:05M. Polysynskyi2.5091112113H. Kulishov1.501191071LSep 28 · 23:35M. Polysynskyi1.83141115192M. Fomin1.831671311113LSep 28 · 21:35M. Polysynskyi1.809560M. Skliar1.911111113WSep 21 · 03:05M. Polysynskyi1.91111134113A. Peretiatko1.8099111122
Y. Sokoltsov10
LOct 2 · 02:05Y. Sokoltsov1.83121011161D. Kim1.8314127183LOct 2 · 01:05Y. Sokoltsov1.916780S. Khandetskyi1.801111113LOct 1 · 23:35Y. Sokoltsov2.2011116992Y. Stepanchuk1.61571111113WOct 1 · 21:35Y. Sokoltsov1.4411117113M. Fomin2.63881181LSep 30 · 03:05Y. Sokoltsov2.0011111552Y. Stepanchuk1.73711211113LSep 30 · 01:35Y. Sokoltsov1.839880S. Pitsyk1.831111113WSep 30 · 00:05Y. Sokoltsov2.7515914113H. Kulishov1.4013111281WSep 29 · 22:35Y. Sokoltsov1.8311711113D. Kim1.83511981WSep 29 · 21:05Y. Sokoltsov2.001411133S. Khandetskyi1.73125110WSep 28 · 19:25Y. Sokoltsov1.361211810113D. Rehotun3.00108111272
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